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Anyone go crazy with this hand?

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Anyone go crazy with this hand?

Postby iceman5 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:37 am

$1/$2NL

Im in the BB with [8c][6c]...5 limpers and I check

Pot is $12. Flop comes [6d][5c][3c]. I check, UTG bets $4, next guy raises to $12...folded back to me. UTG started with $40, UTG+1 started with $22.

Who wants to play for it all right now? Who folds? Any other ideas?
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Postby Proplayer44 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:44 am

I fold, you could be in against a higher flush draw so you are drawing dead there. Runner straight is a no no. Also your top pair may be beat by a higher mid pocket pair.
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Postby ua1176 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:44 am

if they're that shortstacked....you have no fold equity on a push. you do have good pot equity if all your outs (flush, 8's, 6's) are live...but i don't think they are. either UTG or the flop raiser could easily have a set and then you're not getting such good odds. you have only $2 invested...i would fold and find a better spot to get my chips in.

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Postby BadBeatMan » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:50 am

i push.

TPNK with a redraw to the flush, i just dont give shortstacks credit. Especially that short.



That's one of the main points I've picked up from BTP.
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Postby laynegt » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:55 am

pot's too big/other stacks too small to fold. i would put utg all-in to try to get heads up w/ utg+1. you want sb to fold a 4 or bigger 6 to help keep your outs alive. i don't think his stack is deep enough to fold a flush draw...but who knows he might lay down a 9 or T-high one there.
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:59 am

Yes another flush draw is a possibility but its far from a conculsion, the odds of both players flopping a flush draw is small though of course still possible. If seriously doubt either one of them has a set. Being that short a set is going to slowplay and try to tripple up or better. Its hard to know what these guys are playing without knowing how they play, or why there are so short at a much bigger buy in game. Maybe I have a little to much gamlbe in me sometimes but I raise to $40, you do have some fold equity with player #1 though not a lot. The most this can cost you is $40 more and you can win $110. Plus depening on what player 1 has you still have a chance to win, a side pot from player 2, which means you break even.
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Postby Stoneburg » Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:08 am

Against stacks this short I just push. If you get called by both and they show a flush draw and a set, you're screwed, but most likely one of them has an overpair and the other some random junk.

edit: Forgot to mention that one of the reasons I push is table image, this way som observant big stack might see me push with a pretty marginal hand and allow me to stack him with set vs tptk or something.
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Postby T-Rod » Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:11 pm

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Postby k3nt » Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:20 pm

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Postby The A Train » Tue Sep 27, 2005 1:26 pm

I'm folding this real quick. I'd put one on a flush draw and one on trips or a medium pair. You've only invested the BB so why get involved in a hand against two opponents who between them could have you drawing dead.
So...what did you do?
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Postby slaz13 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 1:37 pm

I think you have to fold this too. You could be up against a higher flush draw AND an over pair (or worse a set) from the two short stacks, and with them being that short, I don't think either one of them are folding.

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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:02 pm

Ok I dont get this, how does everyone assume that one of the other players is on a flush draw. If two people both have 2 suited cards the odds of flopping s flush draw is over 100 to 1. Just because one bets and the other guy raises I dont understand why everyone automaticly assumes one player to have a flush draw. I dont really worry about the possiblity of another flush draw, figure it this way. Even if one of the other two players has a flush draw 50% which I think is a high estimate, then 25% of the time it is player 1 with the flush draw meaning that your flush draw is live to take the side pot and break even. I am going to discount the possibility of a set since I think this is not likely the way the hand was played. Someone with a set here is going to slow play it, they know that short stacked they arent going to push anyone off a draw so why raise. More realisticly I think you are looking at an overpair and a bigger 8 as a more reasonable worst case here. In this case you still have a full 11 outs to win the pot and outs to chop with the other 8. My realistic guess here is that one of them has 45s and the other has an over pair. Remeber these players a short stacked they dont have to have premium hands or premium draws to put what left of their stack in the pot.
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Postby iceman5 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:42 pm

Theres some very good analysis here. I have to agree with RHound that another flush draw is unlikely. Forget what I have, what part of the betting pattern suggests a flush draw on their parts?

Maybe UTG has a flush draw ( I doubt it), but if he does, I might be able to get him to fold if I push. He only has $4 invested.

Lets say he does have a flush draw WITH overcards. Im still even money with him and thats just about worse case sceanrio.

Of course I could easily fold here, but there were many many combinations of hands that I beat and I have pretty good equity with my flush draw if I get them both all in , not to mention I have outs for 2 pair or trips that might be good.

So I pushed in . UTG called as did UTG+1. UTG had a set of 6's and UTG+1 had AA. if it had been the other way around, I wouldve been in better shape since I would be a favorite agaisnt AA who wouldve had the bigger stack.

I got no help and the set won the pot.

RHound, the only part of your analysis that didnt make sense was that you said if one of them had a set he would slowplay. I would say that betting $4 into a $12 pot with a set and a flush draw avail IS a slow play. So Im not sure whwy you didnt think UTG couldve had a set. I didnt think he had one, but based on your analysis, I would think that YOU wouldve thought he did.
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Postby T-Rod » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:57 pm

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Postby devilmollusk » Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:35 pm

Ok, I see where your aggression can get you paid off in situations like this... however one of the most basic rules of NL is don't go broke in an un-raised pot. Now, admittedly you are not going to go broke against two shorter stacks. However my guess is that neither of these guys is folding his hand in this situation.

Thus the money you can make by winning the pot outright in this situation dries up. At best you are 34% to win this hand, though I bet some of your outs are dead. The most likely scenario is big pair vs. trips, so in most cases this play will yeild profit. The gotcha comes into play with the marginal situations. There is at least some chance that one of these guys is drawing to the higher flush. That chance may be enough to render this play break-even or worse. I just always worry about shoving all your money in on a draw when you have so much fold equity yourself. If this play succeeds 50.5% of the time it is statistically correct, but is the variance and heartache this play introduces worth the .5% net gain in the long run? Your call.
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