by Aisthesis » Tue Sep 27, 2005 6:20 pm
Very interesting hand. I can go either way here, really (fold or push).
Quite aside from actual holdings, I agree that there are several hands here that give you some nice perspectives, and the short-stacks keep the risk fairly low. But UTG+1 isn't folding this hand. UTG might, as he's risking quite a bit and may have something fairly weak.
Also, I don't really see a bigger flush draw as probable. I'd guess at least 80% of the players I see play their draws passively, and these guys aren't doing that.
I think you're generally going to be behind here, but your flush is also generally going to be good if it hits. UTG can have something like A6 or A5 if he's loose (I see hands like that quite a bit). The made straight would be strange. Something like 77 or 88 is very possible imo.
My opinion, I suppose, is that push vs. fold is fairly marginal here. So, if loosening up your own image buys you something, it's probably a good move (i.e., you're having trouble getting callers). If it's no problem getting action at this table, I think I'd fold it.
One other thing to note: With you in BB, you're really the only player in this hand who reasonably CAN have the made straight, although I would be shocked if UTG+1 ever folded here having put in $12 and having only $10 left.