by Aisthesis » Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:48 pm
Didn't get to this one until the turn. The flop is also interesting in terms of betting out vs. checkraising. I usually bet out, but the checkraise can also be a nice move. I'd be interested in hearing more opinions in that regard.
I'll just say this for the moment: The checkraise certainly gives a bigger pot if you have some fold equity, which is in actuality probably higher than betting out. Betting out gives you more deception if you make it and usually gets you in less deep if you don't. Out of position, however, I at least routinely check the turn if I miss. So, I'm not completely sure.
One other thing to note on this hand is that you're not drawing to the nuts. The flush is the real draw, but with some equity due to the gutshot. I'd really much prefer to make the gutshot, though, as that's the true nuts.
As to the turn action, you do have to worry about the nut flush in this situation. On the other hand, I think the checkraise from BB also looks very 2 pair-ish or set-ish. Minimum raiser can have here the following as I see it: AJ or some other decent jack (possibly with As), 2 pair with 76, any set, the made nut flush, some overpair. I'd say the made nut flush is the least likely of these hands, with overpair also not terribly likely.
You need to protect your hand, though, against 2 pair and the set, as well as AJ with As. If you make a sizeable bet, I think AJ without As is laying down (or should). 2 pair will probably call $90 but not full pot (which, by the way, has you pot committed). The set will have trouble laying down even to full pot, but will do so if he's pretty good. The made nut flush is obviously going nowhere and should raise whatever you bet.
I think I bet 1/3 of my stack here, or $120. I really think some strong jack is his most likely holding. If he comes over the top, I'm still calling, as I figure he can do this with As, possibly even Ks or with the set. The made nut flush is possible, but I don't see it as highly likely. If he has it, you still have 2 outs to the straight flush.
I actually don't think all-in is such a bad option here either, as the river is going to be very difficult to play if the board pairs or another spade hits (at least 2 of those are gone to your straight flush). Also, on the river, an opponent who gets excited about any A or any J isn't going to worry me too terribly much. In any case, if I do bet the $120 and get a call, I'm planning on check-calling the river pretty much regardless, although a spade that doesn't help my hand followed by an all-in from my opponent might make for a check-fold. The more I think about it, the less I think I can lay down on the river to a paired board, though. I think I still like a $120 bet better than pushing.