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Hand analysis / quiz #3

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Hand analysis / quiz #3

Postby iceman5 » Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:26 am

$2/$4 NL at Full Tilt.

Its your very 1st hand and you are in the BB with [Ts][8s]. Its folded to the button who minimum raises. The SB folds and you call.

Pot is $18 and the flop comes [Jh][7s][6s]. The buttons minimum steal raise means absolutely nothing. You have about 100 hands with him and hes down a stack or so, but he had a flush over flush so that means nothing. Hes an avg player from what youve seen.

You check. Leading out here is a good play too and may be less profit / less risk since the guy probably has nothing and will fold, but you decided to try to win a little more here. Button bets full pot (this is FTP with the bet pot button ). The bet is $18 to you with a $36 pot. What do you do?
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Postby Xaston » Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:30 am

I'm check raising here. I'd probably kick it up to $45 or $50. However ideally I think I'd lead into him. If he has nothing I win the pot with ten high which is good. If he has a big pair or AJ and he raises me, I can make a real big re-raise or move in on him, in which case 1 of 2 things happens, we win the pot with ten high after he's already put in a decent chunk of change or we get all our chips in with a 55% chance to win. But after we check I like a check raise, although waiting til lthe turn for a check raise could be quite strong looking...........I dunno, I don't play NL, lol
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Postby wreck27 » Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:39 am

That's probably just a continuation bet. If you check/raise here he probably folds. If a [s] hits on the turn he probably folds when you bet. So the only way to get more money in this pot is to check to the river then bet and hope to not get outdrawn. I don't like giving up this pot in an attempt to extract more money. I reraise and try to take down the pot right there. if he calls then you have to consider he has [As] X[s] and your flush may be no good. I don't think he has an overpair because of the weak preflop bet.

RAISE $36
Last edited by wreck27 on Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Ricardooon » Sun Sep 11, 2005 9:41 am

I like to check raise here. This way I might win there and then or failing that I should get the chance to dictate terms on the turn. Also if the flush or my straight hit I have a slightly better disguised hand to get paid off on.

The downside to the call as I see it is if the flush does hit and you start betting he has an easy bail. If it misses you might face a bet which is tough to call to continue with the hand.

I would prefer to lead into this guy though on the flop, see if I can get him to drop a AK or AQ hand there and then.

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Postby kennyg » Sun Sep 11, 2005 10:44 am

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Postby Smokin'Al » Sun Sep 11, 2005 11:49 am

Check raise all in.

If he calls you're likely ~ a coin flip. Loads of folding equity, and you can then do the same move with a set.

The problem with check-raising *not* all-in is that if he calls, you're in a tough spot the >2/3 of the time he calls and you miss.

Calling is bad for similar reasons (plus only your gutshot outs are "concealed")

(Kenny - did you misread the hand?!)
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Postby Xaston » Sun Sep 11, 2005 11:58 am

I think an all in check raise is way too big of a bet, though I do agree if he calls a standard check raise the turn is kinda tricky to play, I don't think just shoving your whole stack in on the flop here is the solution.
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Postby Smokin'Al » Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:39 pm

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Postby poker2006 » Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:53 pm

I think I would just call and depending on the next card possibly lead or chk-raise the turn. This shows more strength than a chk-raise on the flop.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Sep 11, 2005 1:11 pm

Yeah I did misread the hand.... thought the straight was flopped.

In that case, I like leading out. If it gets raised, you move all-in. If he calls, you continue on the turn with your hand well disguised.

I also think check raising all-in is a bit much and too obvious. I'd raise to like $150, then move all-in on the turn. I think that's a stronger looking play. Not that moving all-in on the flop is bad, I just think you're giving him two chances to fold.
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Postby iceman5 » Sun Sep 11, 2005 1:32 pm

OK, heres what I did. I check raised pot. So I raised to $72. I was quite surprised when he called. I didnt expect him to have much since he made a minimum steal raise.

So the pot is now $162. The turn is the [5s]. The board now shows [Jh][7s][6s][5s]. I have [Ts][8s].

I have about $320 left and he has me covered. How much do you bet now and why?
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Postby excession » Sun Sep 11, 2005 1:55 pm

Plenty of players min raise from the button with Axs - I'm not sure why you only put him on 6 possible holdings for a 'high' flush draw.
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Postby Smokin'Al » Sun Sep 11, 2005 2:06 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:48 pm

Didn't get to this one until the turn. The flop is also interesting in terms of betting out vs. checkraising. I usually bet out, but the checkraise can also be a nice move. I'd be interested in hearing more opinions in that regard.

I'll just say this for the moment: The checkraise certainly gives a bigger pot if you have some fold equity, which is in actuality probably higher than betting out. Betting out gives you more deception if you make it and usually gets you in less deep if you don't. Out of position, however, I at least routinely check the turn if I miss. So, I'm not completely sure.

One other thing to note on this hand is that you're not drawing to the nuts. The flush is the real draw, but with some equity due to the gutshot. I'd really much prefer to make the gutshot, though, as that's the true nuts.

As to the turn action, you do have to worry about the nut flush in this situation. On the other hand, I think the checkraise from BB also looks very 2 pair-ish or set-ish. Minimum raiser can have here the following as I see it: AJ or some other decent jack (possibly with As), 2 pair with 76, any set, the made nut flush, some overpair. I'd say the made nut flush is the least likely of these hands, with overpair also not terribly likely.

You need to protect your hand, though, against 2 pair and the set, as well as AJ with As. If you make a sizeable bet, I think AJ without As is laying down (or should). 2 pair will probably call $90 but not full pot (which, by the way, has you pot committed). The set will have trouble laying down even to full pot, but will do so if he's pretty good. The made nut flush is obviously going nowhere and should raise whatever you bet.

I think I bet 1/3 of my stack here, or $120. I really think some strong jack is his most likely holding. If he comes over the top, I'm still calling, as I figure he can do this with As, possibly even Ks or with the set. The made nut flush is possible, but I don't see it as highly likely. If he has it, you still have 2 outs to the straight flush.

I actually don't think all-in is such a bad option here either, as the river is going to be very difficult to play if the board pairs or another spade hits (at least 2 of those are gone to your straight flush). Also, on the river, an opponent who gets excited about any A or any J isn't going to worry me too terribly much. In any case, if I do bet the $120 and get a call, I'm planning on check-calling the river pretty much regardless, although a spade that doesn't help my hand followed by an all-in from my opponent might make for a check-fold. The more I think about it, the less I think I can lay down on the river to a paired board, though. I think I still like a $120 bet better than pushing.
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Postby wreck27 » Sun Sep 11, 2005 5:12 pm

I make a pot sized bet. I worry about [As] X[s] here because the min raise and call. If he comes back over the top all in he's not scared of the flush so I probably fold. If he calls or makes a small raise I call and go to the river. I dont think a set goes all-in here. If he was a complete muppet I would call an all-in but an "average" player doesn't bet all-in here unless they have the best hand.
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