Pre-Flop
UTG calls .50, Hero (
) calls .50, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB checks. 5 handed to the flop.
Flop ($2.25)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $5.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50
Turn ($12.75)
Hero checks, CO raises all-in ($30), Hero has $14.25 left.
No read on CO; he just sat down at the table.
Pot Odds are 1.9 to 1 ... Do you call?
... giving me a flush draw with a gutshot. I put him on a pair of Jacks and expected him to fold the turn bet. But of course he called and the river was a blank and I lost. I calculated the odds and as long as the "hero" folds 19% of the time with top pair, then pushing is a break even play. Against any solid players (such as you guys) I would have only gotten called by two-pair or a set. Which I did not put him on because he checked the turn with two flush draws and str8's out there. And the times I am wrong I still have a 24% chance to suck out. I think a fold there could be expected atleast 40% of the time making this a profitable push. So I am not too upset with myself.