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stupid or brilliant?, part deux

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stupid or brilliant?, part deux

Postby ua1176 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:02 am

$50NL @ Prima.

i have $85. villain is good, aggressive, pretty tight, maybe a little straightforward, and can make laydowns (i saw him almost lay down an underfull when he thought he got rivered). he covers me by a few $$$. i stacked him a bit earlier when i pushed all-in with a draw on the flop.and he called with a set (oops) and i sucked out. he thinks im a bit stupid. i probably am.

he opens from EP for $2.50. i call from MP w/ [4c][4h]. we see the flop heads up.

flop: [Th] [6s] [8s]
pot size: $5.75

villain leads for $4.50. i think a bit. he has to have either an overpair or 2 big cards. so i dont gain much by raising here. he's seen me play several big pots with decidedly non-monsterish hands, and i've been playing them all pretty fast. so if i raise here he folds his overcards or pushes/calls with his overpair. but i come to 2 conclusions:

1. there are about a million turn cards that he doesnt want to see.

2. he hasn't seen me with any monster hands yet...so he doesnt know how i play them. i think i can represent a big hand on a later street. hell...maybe i'll even luck out and catch a 4.

so i call the $4.50

turn: [Qs]
pot size: $14.75

he leads for $12. i dont think he bets pot on the turn if he just nailed top set with QQ, though i'll admit its a possibility. i think he either has AA/KK/AK/AQ/JJ. i min-raise to $24 with my pretend flush/straight/set or whatever other hand i feel im representing that beats his one pair hand. he thinks for a long time and then calls. i rule out JJ from his possible holdings.

river: [9c]
pot size: $62.75

he checks...i decide this means he doesnt have QQ. i'm convinced that he has a one-pair hand, and i push all-in for $54.

thoughts on my thoughts?

jon
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Postby kennyg » Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:41 am

Well thought out, well exexcuted, wrong limit.

Do this on 5/10NL and your folding equity will be much, much higher.
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Postby kennyg » Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:18 am

Remember that poker isn't about making plays. It's about maximizing your good hands against the weak players. Granted, an occasional bluff is needed so everyone doesn't think you always bet the nuts. Still you must be careful.

Iceman can tell you first hand what these types of plays did for him over the last month. Time and time again you will be called and you will showdown the worst hand. Do not under estimate the willingness of your opponents to call a bet. It's human nature to see it to the end.

I hope this play worked out for you, but IMO you will lose in the long run making these moves.
"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
-Iceman

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forum/viewtopic.php?p=14017#14017
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Postby MBuckler » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:23 am

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Postby Smokin'Al » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:30 am

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Postby ua1176 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:39 pm

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