i have $85. villain is good, aggressive, pretty tight, maybe a little straightforward, and can make laydowns (i saw him almost lay down an underfull when he thought he got rivered). he covers me by a few $$$. i stacked him a bit earlier when i pushed all-in with a draw on the flop.and he called with a set (oops) and i sucked out. he thinks im a bit stupid. i probably am.
he opens from EP for $2.50. i call from MP w/
[4h]. we see the flop heads up.
flop:
pot size: $5.75
villain leads for $4.50. i think a bit. he has to have either an overpair or 2 big cards. so i dont gain much by raising here. he's seen me play several big pots with decidedly non-monsterish hands, and i've been playing them all pretty fast. so if i raise here he folds his overcards or pushes/calls with his overpair. but i come to 2 conclusions:
1. there are about a million turn cards that he doesnt want to see.
2. he hasn't seen me with any monster hands yet...so he doesnt know how i play them. i think i can represent a big hand on a later street. hell...maybe i'll even luck out and catch a 4.
so i call the $4.50
turn:
pot size: $14.75
he leads for $12. i dont think he bets pot on the turn if he just nailed top set with QQ, though i'll admit its a possibility. i think he either has AA/KK/AK/AQ/JJ. i min-raise to $24 with my pretend flush/straight/set or whatever other hand i feel im representing that beats his one pair hand. he thinks for a long time and then calls. i rule out JJ from his possible holdings.
river:
pot size: $62.75
he checks...i decide this means he doesnt have QQ. i'm convinced that he has a one-pair hand, and i push all-in for $54.
thoughts on my thoughts?
jon