i still agree with kenny. Even being the best EV-wise, it was still almost a 3 person coinflip. You could have been in much worse shape like Kenny said with ATh. By raising and getting all in, you are pretty much saying you are willing to flip a coin for 2k trying to win 6k against 2 opponents. Does this mean you will call with 22 all in preflop if you KNOW 100% someone has AK? That's a coinflip too. A superior player should be able to get his money in when he's better than slightly +EV.

Running my hand against the made str8 and ATh....

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 338 37.43 550 60.91 15 1.66 0.380
8s 8c 319 35.33 569 63.01 15 1.66 0.359
5s 6c 231 25.58 657 72.76 15 1.66 0.261

There is also the possibility of....

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 314 34.77 580 64.23 9 1.00 0.351
Kh Qh 9 1.00 885 98.01 9 1.00 0.013
8s 8c 571 63.23 323 35.77 9 1.00 0.636

I'm not a big gambler either - I dont push every miniscule edge. I will fold sets on coordinated boards.

But in this case, I felt that I either had a slight equity, or was a large favorite...I try to get my money in as a big favorite, but sometimes that just isn't possible. I think this is one of those cases.

As for the AK/22 comparison, I'm not sure that's fair - in that case, i have 0 invested and only the blinds in the pot. Here, there is already 450 in the pot, and there will be 630 if me and MP just call. There is something to play for, and I have a slight (not huge) overlay.

D

I do see your point too but I don't think there is a need to not take the cheap card. If you are 100% sure the button has a flush draw, you can get away from the turn if it is a heart or try to draw to boat up for cheap. Or, if a non heart hits and you don't think someone has the made straight, lead the turn to keep the flush draw from getting the free card. You are good enough to get away from your hand, they aren't likely as good so see the turn, get away if needed or extract value if you hit and they are drawing dead.

i agree with iceman.......uhh..i mean briachek :):)

i don't think your play was bad at all droqqa.... i just think the optimum play is to call, because of the reasons briachek mentioned. I really can't word it any better then he has.

Sorry I missed this thread yesterday.

Question... does anyone play it they way the button played it with the min raise flush draw?

Droqqa is obviously sophisticated and could read it, but against the average player (ie the ones I play against), it seems like a good way to get a cheaper turn when drawing to a nut flush.

Tim

also running some numbers. What if you were up agains JTh and 89s for two pair and backdoor flush draw?

You would be 14.3%
89s would be 14.0%
JTh would be 71.7%

If you were up against 56h and 97?

You would be 15.7%
56h would be 74.5 %
97 would be 9.8%

How about 56o and 9T?

you would be 30.7%
56 would be 42%
9T would be 27.4%

There are a few situations that don't give you 1/3 equity so -EV.

Interesting hand, thanks for posting it. I had a similar hand

http://livepokerforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7184

Not really a monster. You were in the same spot as the player with the set of Tens but he was in the middle. I check raised all in. We had smaller stacks.

Well, I also did an analysis from the perspective of MP, but it got lost since the server was apparently down. I decided that I'd really prefer to just fold this hand on the flop, for whatever it's worth (I assumed it was 65s, which I would have played to begin with).

Anyhow, I'd also like to do a little analysis if LP had JT on this board. There's almost no better hand to illustrate the critical importance of raising with the nuts in this situation.

Actually, I'd like to analyse it first under the assumption that MP isn't in the hand--i.e., it's HU with droq. The additional player, who is basically dead money, changes the situation significantly. What I'm really interested in is whether it's better to make just a serious raise or to raise all-in from the get-go.

Ok, with just droq in the hand, here's the way it goes: He bets $90 into a $90 pot, so the raise is to $360, and I assume droq calls (I assume droq folds to an all-in, so we have an EV of $180 there, that's easy).

Now, droq has 7 outs on the turn with 45 cards left in the deck. So, 7 times I just lost $360 ($2,520), and 38 times, let's just say something else happens. Basically, I have an EV of -$56 on the times droq fills up on the turn.

Ok, if droq misses on the turn, then he checks, and JT bets maybe $500 into the pot of $810. Well, droq is making a bad call here if he calls, so I'll just assume he folds.

That means that on the 38 misses, you make $450 each time for an EV of (38*450)/45 = $380. Yep, it clearly beats the EV on the all-in.

I think it's also obvious that raising to $450 or so with the MP dead money in is even better. I don't know whether droq really needs to call or fold here given the dead money from MP. What probably in point of fact happens there is that droq folds but MP calls. True, if droq makes his hand on the turn, he wins, and it's fairly reasonable to assume that this particular MP is going to call almost always. But if 3 players call the flop at $450, I think JT is clearly all-in on the turn barring a paired board or the flush (which MP in principle might have the way he's playing, but if the flush card does hit, LP again has the advantage of finding out where he's at before making a decision). Objectively, I think that forces droq to fold the flop before getting in insanely deep to a raise to $450 (??).

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