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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: 8h 9h 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 36.1388 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { 8s8c }
Hand 2: 31.9306 % [ 00.26 00.06 ] { 6s5c }
Hand 3: 31.9306 % [ 00.26 00.06 ] { Ah6h }

This is what I deleted

as for the action on the turn, you say you are 100% certain that the button is on the flush draw but there is a range of hands that MP could have. Some beat you and some don't but may take away some of your outs. If you are confident you are leading, lead the pot again and see what happens. Would the button raise with a flush draw again? Would MP raise with bottom straight? If they are likely to just call, lead again to control the size of the pot. If they are likely to raise, especially if you think MP has the straight, check, hope he checks and let the button check so you all get free cards to beat MP.

Well, I calculated this out longhand given what they have and droq has. Here's what I get.

Split pot with runner-runner JT (no hearts): 1.0%

droq boats (or quads) on turn: 16.7%
6 on turn with boat (or quads) on river: 0.9%
5 or A on turn with boat (or quads) on river: 3.1%
all other card with boat (or quads) on river: 15.7%
TOTAL wins for droq: 36.4%

When droq wins, he wins $4,000. When he loses, it's $2,000.

I thus get an EV of $206 the way the hand played out.

While I think the EV of $206 is going to be hard to beat with a flat call on the flop, the main problem I see in playing this hand is the question mark on MP's holdings.

If we know both hands, one aspect is being able to outplay both hands on each street, which imo is always a good thing. But the problem with THAT is that you have one hand to which you're behind and another that you're leading. And, an additional problem is that with the set, more often than not you don't take the lead until the river.

Just judging from the way they play this hand, I think MP is going to pay you off if you fill up, but I don't think LP will. If LP hits his flush on the turn, I think you're actually going to have trouble making it to the river.

I still think that if I knew exactly what they had, I'd probably go with the flat call. If the board pairs on the turn, you can bet half pot, maybe even a 1/3-pot bet if they'll fall for it drawing dead. If it doesn't, it may actually get checked around here.

Ok, but that, I think brings up the real complication here: We don't know that MP doesn't have something like 97. If he has that, then pairing the 7 helps you, but pairing the 9 now has you drawing dead to an 8.

I think it's really that unclarity that speaks more for raising big at every opportunity on the flop.

There are effectively 2 scenarios:

1) You're already ahead on the flop. In that case, pushing with callers is obviously best.

2) You're behind but have the best draw. If you're behind (and this would apply even if LP had JT), then this makes your boating chances actually better, because all of the pairing cards are still in the deck (JT made just reduces the split pot scenario on runner-runner JT).

Well, on scenario 2, you obviously can't figure out the EV on the spot, but you do know that if you're behind, you're getting +EV with all of your pairing cards there.

I think this is a clear case for the raise. If you're ahead, you obviously need to do it because they have very real outs. And, if you're behind to anyone, you're in good shape with your draw.

I guess the true nightmare sceario would be one player with 97 and another with either of the made straights. But, with your read on LP, that's actually impossible. Even with that read, I think it's extremely difficult to see one's way through this hand.

Excellent job!