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He couldn't have AA, could he?

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He couldn't have AA, could he?

Postby Kowskie » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:28 am

Empire NL 100
Opponent and I both have aprrox $100 and opponent is unkown. I just had time to sit down and play for about 15 minutes which can be dangerous.

UTG is the only limper and I raise to $4 on the button with AcKc. Blinds fold and UTG reraises to $14. Normally I would need a good read to call that big a raise with AK, but since I had to quit soon (not a great reason) I called to see the flop and was prepared to fold and quit for the night if it didn't hit me over the head.

Flop: ($29.50) As 7h 2d
UTG bets $32 - strange - No draws - I am either tied to another AK, behind AA, or ahead of KK, QQ - It just didn't feel like he had AA to me! Did he think I was stealing with nothing and had no Ace?
Thoughts?
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Postby LottaFagina » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:39 am

If the flop was Jc 7h 2d instead and UTG STILL bet into you, what would you have done then? Would he reraise that much with JJ and hit his set? Would he bet big with QQ or KK? Would he reraise with AK or AQ here?

I think you gotta fold to that PF reraise. If you hit OR miss, you gotta fear either being behind pairing the aces or a set of aces, especially with the 108% pot sized bet on the flop ($32 into $29.50 pot).
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Postby Twelver » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:43 am

Mekos King (10:21:59 PM): one of the first rules of manlaw
Mekos King (10:22:06 PM): is never ever try to suck backup to a bitch
Mekos King (10:22:09 PM): who caught u cheatin
Mekos King (10:22:23 PM): unless your married and would lose like money inna divorce
Mekos King (10:22:33 PM): then u suckup just long enuf to get close enough to killer obv

Heat517163 (5:05:37 PM): black people man
Heat517163 (5:05:40 PM): they travel in packs
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Postby majakovskij » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:02 am

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Postby T-Rod » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:58 am

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Postby laynegt » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:01 am

i fold to the pot-sized limp reraise from a full-stacked utg everytime. he has AA or KK, idk, 90% of the time?

i really don't like pushing this flop; i would flat call. you flopped an A and he fires out for pot. mathematically he's now much less likely to have AA here, yes. at this point, i would expect to have the best hand. if you push, he folds KK, which would be a disaster. if you call and he has KK, he's got a 1 outer, so give him another chance to bluff at it; you can go ahead and bet the turn if he checks...although honestly, in that case i might check again and give him another chance to bluff KK on the river.
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Postby T-Rod » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:09 am

Despite my comments, I agree with laynegt that its a fold preflop but I think you already know that.
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Postby LottaFagina » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:22 am

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Postby T-Rod » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:24 am

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Postby Kowskie » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:41 am

Thanks for the comments. Yes, I agree I should have folded pre-flop. Well, I pushed on the flop and he folded so it probably was KK. It would have been interesting to have followed the advice that suggested I call and see if I could have gotten more of his stack!
Thanks again
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Postby LottaFagina » Wed Sep 21, 2005 10:44 am

We should have a 'Who Do You Look Like Contest'. People say I look like Goose/Dr.Green all the time:

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Postby majakovskij » Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:54 am

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Postby majakovskij » Wed Sep 21, 2005 12:09 pm

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Postby laynegt » Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:46 pm

maja, i still think smooth calling is better, and i'll try to explain why.

this hand is kinda unique b/c we can with 80-90% confidence put utg on a hand that gives him 1 out. and we really don't have to think about the other 10-20% where he has AA (or AK), b/c all our $ will be going in anyway in that case. so the bottom line is, you can afford to 'slowplay' here even though all you have is a pair.

raising all-in just gives a hopeless hand a chance to fold. true, he may call (in fact, i think the avg play will call here), but here's the thing: if he's the type to call that all-in, he'll also put the rest of his stack in on the turn after a smooth call.

so i think the central questions are: how often will an opponent who folds to an all-in flop raise put more $ in after you smooth call? and is it worth the risk? look at it this way, the loss of ev from keeping KK in the hand is worst case ~$5 on each street (2.2% of an eventual $200 pot). so if nothing else, smooth call the flop and if he checks the turn to you, bet like $10 on each non-K street to make up the lost ev. no way he can lay down for that price; and now you're making more $.
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Postby kennyg » Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:56 pm

laynegt is correct IMO. Let him continue bluffing the turn. If he has a one or two outer...that's a great situation to get some extra money in. If he does have AA, you're gonna lose all your money anyway, ...let him do the betting for you.

If he checks the turn, value bet. Then value bet the river.... People find it hard to lay down a pair of kings or queens, unless you give them a reason to (all-in on the flop.)
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