by laynegt » Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:46 pm
maja, i still think smooth calling is better, and i'll try to explain why.
this hand is kinda unique b/c we can with 80-90% confidence put utg on a hand that gives him 1 out. and we really don't have to think about the other 10-20% where he has AA (or AK), b/c all our $ will be going in anyway in that case. so the bottom line is, you can afford to 'slowplay' here even though all you have is a pair.
raising all-in just gives a hopeless hand a chance to fold. true, he may call (in fact, i think the avg play will call here), but here's the thing: if he's the type to call that all-in, he'll also put the rest of his stack in on the turn after a smooth call.
so i think the central questions are: how often will an opponent who folds to an all-in flop raise put more $ in after you smooth call? and is it worth the risk? look at it this way, the loss of ev from keeping KK in the hand is worst case ~$5 on each street (2.2% of an eventual $200 pot). so if nothing else, smooth call the flop and if he checks the turn to you, bet like $10 on each non-K street to make up the lost ev. no way he can lay down for that price; and now you're making more $.