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Axs. How do you play it and win?

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Axs. How do you play it and win?

Postby The A Train » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:08 am

It's unlucky to be superstitious
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Postby GodlikeRoy » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:22 am

"I hit a four flush on the flop and call to the river and miss my draw. "

You should get aggressive when you have the nut flush draw on the flop. If it's a raised pot, i usually raise the PF raiser if i'm in position, or CR if i'm not. You might pick the pot up here if it was a continuation bet by them and the flop missed and if not, you should get a free card on the turn giving you better odds and more money if you do hit your flush. Also, it'll be harder fo your opponent to put youon a flush draw this way.

Try not to limp in with Axs in EP either, as you will get raised a lot and unless it's a huge multiway pot, you'd be better off folding anyway.

It's very difficult to get paid when there's 3 to a flush on the board unless you're up against a lower flush or a complete muppet, this is why I like raising the flop and getting some money in the pot so if you do hit, you get paid for it and might be able to squeeze a bit more out.

Another thing about Axs is that hitting 2 pair against someone holding AK or AQ is going to pay you off big time.

Overall, i'd say only play Axs from mid-late position and when you do get a flush draw, play it aggresively.
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Postby GooperMC » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:54 am

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Postby black_knight6 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:58 am

Over 20k hands and AXs is profittable for me from EVERY position. The trick isn't trying to steal pots with it, but knowing how to make maximum profits when you do hit.

First is to know when to limp in EP/MP: you need to know your table (using HUD really does all the work for you in this department) - you want a table with a high average VPIP (over 27) and a low preflop raise % (lower than 4). This way, you can be more confident that your commitment of the limp $$ will be well spent towards seeing the flop.

Second is to know how to maximize your profits: you need to hide your hands from people when that 3rd flush card hits. This requires knowing your specific opponents: did they bet out when it was checked to them, and you called? Best to just put in a 1/5 pot bet or so on the turn if you hit because they were trying to steal and you don't want to scare them away. Be sure to BEWARE when the board pairs: now there are possible boats out there and you'll be up the creek without one. Don't be afraid to lead out when the flush card hits - sometimes it's more obvious for you to check then raise, than for you to lead out depending on your opponent - they may even suspect the checkraise coming and will check behind and you'll get nothing. So, then you just have to select the size of the bet - if you think that they'll fold, put in a 1/5 pot bet or so that they'll KNOW is crying for a call, but if they have any piece of the board they'll feel linclined to call.

A third requirement is to just be on tables with lots of stupid aggressive people ;) Sure that sounds glib, but this means that the 3rd concept is TABLE selection...which is no small matter in poker.

Something to think about,
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Postby The A Train » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:53 am

Thanks for the advice. I tend to be a bit passive when I get the four flush. I will try to turn up the aggression and see if my results improve.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:02 pm

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Postby gdaviet » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:55 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:25 pm

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Postby gdaviet » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:33 pm

I think 1.9 to 1 is way off for A2 and a K54 flush draw.

Unless he has a set, AA or AK, you are a favorite to win this hand. Fold equity is just a bonus. Even against AA & AK, you've got 12 outs. A set is the only hand that has you in bad shape.

Unless I can tell with certainty that he has a set BEFORE the action gets to me (which is unlikely), I'm looking to get all the money in right there.

IMO, this is an easy decision. This is the ideal flop for A2s.
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Postby rdale » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:46 pm

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Postby Chris-bg » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:06 pm

You cannot possibly play under a pot sized raise. Well , you can, if you want to donate money that is. Maybe if you know your opponent well and know that he will probably lay down even TPTK or call and give you a free card with a set.. but most likely you don't know him that well. I make money out of people that play their flush draws under my potsized bets.. And in an unraised pot if you raise me on the flop, chances are I'll be going all in ,cause most likely I don't got just a pair.
The point of playing Axs is only from late position in an unraised pot with let's say at least 2 limpers. If there are no limpers I'd raise first in. In an unraised pot there is a pretty good chance that noone will raise the flop or will raise it less than full pot, or that another player decides to call and give you odds. Also in an unraised pot your ace may actually be good. You have position so if checked to, you can decide, depending on the board and players to take a free card or bet.
I think there are 2 reasons to lose money with Axs. First - you stay with it when you should fold it (vs a pot sized raise for example or in EP) and second - you don't get enough value of it when you hit. I think it's pretty stupid to slowplay your flush, cause you don't got so much time to build the pot. Make a good raise. Since you've got position it shouldn't be hard to milk your opponent. It would be waaay much harder OOP, cause if you lead out, it's pretty obvious what you got. If you check, then the other guy may check as well.
Also, if your opponents are constantly folding when the flush comes, then you should be constantly bluffing them. :)
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Postby gdaviet » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:22 pm

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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:46 am

Ok, returning to the original question, I think gdavie hits the nail on the head: This same raise on a wide variety of holdings makes it very difficult to put you on a hand.

And I'm completely in agreement that, if you're going to play it, you must raise it strongly.

I am a bit concerned about the probabilities I figured there, however (and I have been playing AXs in LP--this just made me think a bit about it). You're really not going to get 89% fold equity on the raise. At the tables I play, I'd put it at somewhere around 40-50%, just guessing.

And while it's difficult to get a caller on the flush, it's certainly not impossible against 2 pair or even a good TP. So, that does give some boost already to the strength of making the flush. Where I think the real strength comes in is in the fairly rare case that you have someone else drawing to a lower flush. Although the scenario is pretty infrequent, there's a pretty high probability that you can stack them on that one.

Considering all that, I do think that AXs looks a lot prettier than it really is. Suited connectors are simply stronger hands than AXs.
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Postby The A Train » Sun Sep 18, 2005 4:22 am

I am having more success with the suited connectors too. I only play at the $25 table level and I find that the fold equity on a 4 flush to be well below 50%. It doesn't seem to matter how much I bet I tend to get called.
Does anyone else have this problem at the $25 level? Do you encounter the same problem at the higher levels?
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Postby gdaviet » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:31 am

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