reraise his ass all in!
u have a great read on this guy

What are his showdown stats like (WtSD and W$SD? What does it say in PT details for bet flop % & fold flop %? (I know, I know probably too technical).

What I want to know is does this guy chicken out when he raises to 70 with his scared pair? Does he play more scared out of position (he was in the AQ hand and QQ hand?).

I'm thinking if you are HU and you call him down that you could take the pot away from him on the turn/river.

1) If you do that too many times, he's going to call you eventually. How many times do you think he's going to let you "steal" $100 before he gambles for $1000 with AK? Do it a few times with "anything", then just do it with AA or KK and hopefully you'll catch him at the moment he tires of your "stealing".

2) Probably re-raise, at least until he notices what you're doing and starts raising AA, KK too.

3) If you make plays according to your holdings, won't he figure out what you're holding eventually? It doesn't sound like he's a dolt, just he's predictable. I think you mix this up - some raises PF, some call PF / big bet on the flop.

His WtSD and W$SD are 24% and 64%, but I dont think thats relevant here.

Hes done this about 10 times that I can remember. He got called that one time is all. (not counting my hand here)

Phish, how many times does he have to let me steal his $120 before I make a profit even if he calls my all in with AK and I have T6?

If he calls with AK vs my random hand (lets say T6). Hes only a 65% to 35% favorite.

So EV wise, he wins $1000 65 times out of 100 and loses $1000 35 times out of 100. He makes an avg of $300 per hand. I make $120 ever time he folds. So if he folds 3 times for every time he calls, I win money. (Im ignoring the limpers money here).

The only thing is that he MIGHT make that big a raise with AA/KK with that many limpers if hes in the BB, since I think he doesntt like playing multiway pots with big hands, hence the $70 raise with QQ.

This move isn't uncommon and has me asking the same question.

My general strategy is that I need a big pair to get into the hand. Particularly if he's limping with AA/KK a lot, your payoff probability is too low on trying to set (hence, laying down 66). Even on JJ, however, it's not at all clear whether you're trying to set or not.

If I may semi-hijack, let me give you another hand from this week that I was REALLY proud of: I have QQ and make it $25. A very good player with $600 (roughly even stacks) makes it $75. I flat call, knowing I need to set. Flop is T-high. I check-fold to his KK, no stab, no nothing... (I will at some point mix in a stab against this guy, but first, I'm going to set).

Ok, so back to your player, who's raising 2.5%. First question is where these raises are coming from. I normally raise JJ-AA and AK. That's 40 hands out of 1300, so just under 3%. He's raising a little less.

But he also USUALLY limps on AA/KK, typically makes the big raise on QQ (JJ, too?), usually limps on AK/AQ. So, where are the remaining raises coming from? And how does he respond to a re-raise?

I think re-raising HARD on AK is a pretty good bet against this guy, although I usually don't have the balls to do it. Also, re-raising KK is probably good, more as a test than anything else (as you know, I really like your power play idea, which presupposes a flat call).

Let's start with the $120 scenario. You've seen AQ, and the probability is very low that he has AA/KK. If you have AK or KK, it's even lower. Let's say both of your stacks are $1,000. A re-raise to $360 is plenty (actually, $300 already prevents setting).

The real reason why I personally haven't had the balls to make this move (and end up flat calling with AK) is that I know I don't have the balls to follow through on the flop if he calls. We now have a pot of $720, and you're going to have to hit it with another $400 to represent AA.

The $70 scenario isn't quite as horrible but amounts to pretty much the same thing. You MUST imo deny odds for setting. And that means at least somewhere around $250.

If you play with this guy a lot, he also will know that you're normally only going to re-raise AA/KK (whatever your current general KK strategy is), so I really think you have good fold equity here after that many hands.

Honestly, I think the best strategy is this: Re-raise JJ-AA and AK to the above amounts. If he SHOULD call, just let it go barring a good flop (JJ as overpair, etc.). I really don't think he'll call specifically against you. And that's so few hands, that it will probably be another 1,000 playing against him that this is even going to happen. It will take him forever to catch on to what you're doing.

If it's getting really aggravating, you could even consider a VERY aggressive counter, which is re-raising any ace. But I wouldn't get chronic on that move, if I made it at all. As seldom as he makes the move, however, it's really not getting in your way, I would think.

On the other hand, he seems to be getting pretty close to telegraphing his hand on these raises ($120 meaning AQ-ish, $70 meaning QQ-ish). With position, you could also consider a flat call (or even re-raise) with KJ to the $120 raise, then betting (and raising) any flop without an A or a Q. You can also consider any 2 if you want to get really aggressive here, but if you have an A, K or Q in your hand, you reduce his flop possibilities of hitting (I'm think $120 could also be an AK).

Well, sorry to ramble so much, but this is an extremely important thread imo. Capitalizing on known strategies is ultimately just HUGE. But it's also my current source of confusion. So, I've been thinking about a lot of counters but rarely have the balls to really follow through on them. I have a little bit with position and am increasingly convinced that position is the key on any of these moves. Out of position, just fold consistently without something huge (that will also keep him confused if you make the moves when you have position).

I guess some initial additional questions here:

1) Has he ever been re-raised in your database after making a big raise? This question is going to have some relevance, although it's going to be different, perhaps, if it's you doing the raising, since he knows you're a serious opponent.

2) Where are the additional raises coming from? Suited connectors? little pairs? trouble hands? Do raising quantities say anything about which one it actually is?

If you have only seen one of his hands when he does this, and you've never seen him reraised, I don't think you have that much information. If he only raises 2.5% of his hands, he's probably not raising with junk and I would want a good hand to reraise him.
AKs seems like a good one.

From what Ice said, he probably doesn't like to play his top hands from early position and raises a lot to limit the field. I don't think AA/KK are unlikely here. It's ok to limp AA/KK in order to reraise, but after seeing everyone act, with 3-4 limpers most players will raise AA/KK in the BB.

I think I favor a 3-4x reraise like Aisthesis suggested. An all in reraise is risky, because I feel AA-JJ is a reasonable holding for him there. If you reraise all in representing AA, how often can you get him to lay down KK-JJ there? With an all-in you are risking a lot to win that $120.

No, Ive never seen anyone reraise him. There is $185 in this pot since there were 4 limpers and he raised to $140 (plus SB $5).

He has done this enough times that Ive been thinking about what to do. I didnt limp AKs for this purpose. It just turned out that I happened to limp it this time and he happened to make this raise this time. I shoved it all in and he folded.

It's definitely a very good player against whom to move in with AK. The only thing I don't like about it is that it gives you little information for trying more moderate moves later on (I think the all-in with that hand against this player makes everything pretty straightforward--he's probably dominated, possibly a coinflip, and you don't have to worry about it any more if he calls, also getting the two free cards just in case he'll call you with QQ). If he gives some thought to the hand, I think he'll actually put you on AK here. That hand just makes the most sense for you to make this play on (possibly also KK, but not AA).

What really interests me on this kind of scenario is just how to address it over the long haul. I'd prefer to make a more reasonable re-raise in general, but when?

Let me generalize a bit. You're sitting at a table with this guy, probably some others on whom you have more or less reads, maybe some unknowns. The most radical counter-strategy here is: Re-raise any 2 on the telegraphed hands. Most conservative: Re-raise AA only (and against this guy, KK is very safe as well). In any case, you have all of these players to deal with, and if you adopt a radically loose counter-strategy, you do have to think of the rest of the table.

Here's really my dilemma on this kind of thing: Do you keep your tight overall strategy and just mix in a few "plays" against this particular player under certain conditions (position is definitely one for me) or do you go into full-scale LAG mode (in the spirit of shifting gears) for a certain period of time, then switch back down into conservative?

If you can keep track of the rest of the table while making targetted "plays," I think that's to some extent the best, but it's very difficult (for me, anyway) to really be on top of all of the factors involved. If you just make a decision, "I'm going to play (sane) LAG until I start getting too many callers," then it's much easier to keep your game together. When you feel the time is right, then you just switch back down into tight mode.

I'll try to formulate this more coherently later, but maybe it's somewhat clear already what I'm talking about. It's basically a question of exactly how to mix up variations on tight strategies that essentially work but get very tedious once most players know your strategy and know that you're a tight player.

As far as AA goes, Ive pushed all in 4 times with it after a raise (either limp reraise or just a reraise all in). Ive gotten called 3 of those times.

I dont know if he was at the table and saw them or not. My point is that I WILL push with AA sometimes.

I think if he has AQ, hes folding to any reraise so Im not sure why reraising to $360 is any better. I think pushing all in, or raising the flop all in is better. Raising the flop all in could be good because Ive already seen him bet the flop with nothing but a gutshot after raising big preflop with AQ, so a flat call and then raising the flop could get more money out of him.

Yeah, jav's question still has me stumped.

Pushing with AA is interesting, too, but it may again have to do with the field. I feel like it's a more typical AK-type move, hence, your likely callers, who surely had at least something (like a pair of whatever quality or else another AK) and probably figured you for AK, which is what I'd generally put a good player on if he pushes.

I'll have to think more about the AA push. I can think of some players against whom it might be pretty sweet (actually, against the better ones, who I'm sure would put me on AK).

He hasnt been stealing MY money. I havent been in any of these other hands where he did this. But when I see a strange move like that from a regular, I start trying to figure out what to do about it for next time.

He does raise big pairs when limpers are already in the pot, but in EP he will limp and then just call. I cant remember him ever reraising. I think he raises to more like $70-$80 with a big pair after limpers, but like I said, I ve only seen his cards once when he raised to $110-$130. He has limp called my raise with AA once and KK once. I busted him when he had KK and heres the AA hand

He limps, I raise to $40 with AK, he calls.
Pot $95. Flop T64. he check and I check behind.
Pot $95. Turn A. He checks and I check behind
Pot $95. River brick...he bets $50 and I call. He has AA. This is what I call my "houdini hand". I had AK vs AA with an ace out there and only lost $90.

Well I don't know where you got the play for that Houdini hand or what feeling you had about it, but that's magic. Very nice.

So my understanding is correct, he will raise strongly high pairs after multiple limpers. In that case what hand do you think you need to reraise against him, to have a reasonable chance if you are called? If you put in 1000 to win 180, you are risking money 5:1 ratio.