I think MP1 has a hand like KQ or JQ. If this is right, then I guess I would check to him and let him take another stab at it like he did on the turn, then raise him. I think MP3 might have a better hand, like AQ, or maybe the other 7, if he does have the other 7 you're most likely beat and you need to get as much money out of MP1 here as possible.

The only guy we care about at this point is the sorta-fishy guy who limped preflop, called a flop bet, bet the turn, and over-called the allin by the short. Lets just assume that to be involved to that degree, he at least has to have a queen, and lets further assume that being a bad but not ridiculous player, his limping range with queens is KQ-Q9. I would guess that any pocket pair TT or lower might be in his limping range, and maybe any suited ace AJ or lower, suited connectors, high unsuited connectors, etc.

Hands he could have limped with that beat you: 88, 22, 87, A7, 97s, 67, maybe Q7s.
Hands he could have limped with that you beat: KQ, QJ, QT, Q9, maybe Q8s, AT-A8, TT-99, 66-33.

Lets say he wouldn't have called the bet on the flop with nothing or nearly nothing. That eliminates AT-A8, 66-22. He could have reasonably bet out with any of the remaining hands on the turn.

After the all-in and overcall, he must know that at least one of you has at least a queen. TT-99 are out, Q8 and Q9 are probably out. Also, if he had the nuts or close to it, he would certainly make some raise at this point now that he sees how strong you are (ruling out Q7, 87, 88, probably A7). We're left with maybe 97 or 76 vs. QK-QT. These hands will call a 1/3 pot value bet, probably even a 1/2 pot bet. So I say bet, since I agree that it's 95% unlikely that he has a better 7.

The short all-in type player confused me by going all-in on the turn and not the flop. I bet he has something quite strong, OR something that improved somehow when the 8 hit the turn.



If I was actually playing this hand and had less time to think, I would probably just think "hmm... the guy can't have me beat unless he's a huge slowplayer. More likely he has a queen with a good kicker because he overcalled, showing strength. Probably won't fold to a value bet, and I can't induce a bluff-ish bet. typical value bet, about 1/2 pot sounds nice.

I was pretty sure I had MP1 beat. I was also pretty sure I has short stack beat, but in case I didnt, i wanted to get some money from MP1 in the side pot, since I would be losing the big pot.

So, how do you balance
1) wanting to make sure you get money from MP1 in the side pot and not wanting to bet so much that he folds causing me to get nothing if the short stack has me beat

2) Not betting TOO small, that MP1 smells weakness and raises BIG which might make me fold the winner if he only has a Q

I still havent answered that question yet, but I really thought that MP1 would reraise the turn if he had a 7, so I was sure enough that I had him beat that I was willing to call a raise. I bet $40 and he called.


MP1 had AA. MP2 short stack had KQ.

Limping with AA, naughty naughty....that is what he gets.

-twelver

Fascinating hand analysis. Ice, to your comments on the river of being caught between wanting value and yet not wanting to show weakness and fold to a Q bluffing you... I really struggle with just that and it's the reason i don't slowplay that often (or well).

Considering that they guy is fishy and you are 95% sure he doesn't have the 7... I'm all in. I want to make it look like an overbet (which people seem to think all ins are all the time). More importantly, I feel that i have a 95% chance of winning against him and it would appear he can't get away from his hand.

On a similiar point... Sometimes I use (when there are fishies) a strategy of going all in on the river when I have the nuts or I'm pretty sure I've won. Lot's of guys fold of course and I lose value; however, after the 4th or 5th allin people stop believing your allins. Sooner or later someone calls me with 2nd pair or what ever.

Tim