Well, I dont know what the exact risk of ruin is and I doubt it can be calculated, but I do know that Ive never lost 10 buys in, and I havent lost more than 6 buy ins in over 2 years. I have never had a losing month, and Ive had 2 losing weeks in 2005.

If I dont lose the 10 buy ins right from the start then the odds are even higher against it. I mean if I start off fairly good and win $2000 in the first 10 days or so , which isnt that much money at all, then I have 12 buy ins.

Its just hard for me to believe that I could have my worst losing streak ever and it correelate exactly to the timing of the start of this project.....but its possible of course.

Where do you play? Do you have a rakeback deal?

Prima and Party mostly...and yes.

i seriously am speechless here.

let me give some background: i acutally AM a winning player in the games iceman is looking for backers to play. That he is asking people for money here horrifies me.

Successful players selling shares of themselves is nothing new. It happens all the time. As to this person playing in that game.. well, I can only look forward to ice meeting him in combat.

I post on another poker forum. on that forum, iceman posts and asks for advice with how to play poker because the players are of a higher caliber there. in the past i have called him out for posting bad advice and overstating his qualifications. he wa mad at me there, got flamed by usual posters, disagreed with many posters much better than himself and essentially humiliated hiself, therefore he does not post there much anymore.

This other forum is 2+2 as far as I see it. That this poster would not actually name the forum is suspicious. The trouble with 2+2 (if indeed that is the forum, which I don't know for sure yet), as ice, myself and I assume countless others have found is that it's a 'gang'. You can't sound like you know what you're talking about unless you're already in this gang, otherwise you get flamed. I know, I've seen it. If you have an opinion that falls without the 'group think', then your fate on that forum is ridicule.

In my opinion, THIS IS A TERRIBLE INVESTMENT. by his own admission and by the analysis of winning, professional cash game players who post there, he has only a rudimentary understanding of NL poker.

This poster is saying ice has admitted to being not very good at NL? Seems a little strange, no? I'm sure he has said 'I'm not perfect' (who is?), or 'i'm not the best player in the world' (and I'm sure he knows that the 1000NL game is going to be tougher than the games he plays now), but 'by his own admission....only a rudimentary understanding of NL poker' is quite frankly laughable! Lol.

consider this: if he saw this as a good investment, then why would he share it? I certainly play four tables of 5/10 for 7 hours a day on my own dime because i see it as an excellent investment. i would not sell a piece of myself for any less than my expectation in that game. please do not get scammed here. iceman (his real nickname is THE ICE CREAM MAN btw) claims two things:

Yawn. Ice clearly states his reasons for not wanting to put all the money up himself, which I won't bore regular readers by repeating here.

Ice's nickname IS 'the ice cream man'. Why? Because this monicker was given to him on the beat by a group of criminals he used to regularly bust (he is a detective). This poster seems to think that this nickname is somehow a reflection of his NL game? Sadly misinformed, sir!

1. that he has played over a milion hands of poker
2. that he does not want to risk his own money for this "shot"

if he has played that many hands, even at 100NL (he claims to play higher) with a decent winrate, he should be looking at $150K-200K. taking a $10K shot should mean NOTHING to him.

A million hands of poker, sure, but in total over his entire lifetime, and I'm sure a fairly large chunk below 100 NL when he was early on in his poker career, but ice can answer this one himself better.

there are many other logical fallacies with this offer, simply let me say that there are far better things to do with your money. due to his hate for me, im sure this account will be banned and this post removed, but if i can keep any money out of his hands, ive done my job.

Notice how the poster tries to offload the burden of being banned onto ice as an admission of 'being right'. A childish tactic. No dude, you've been banned for the style of your post. Think about it, if you had genuinely wanted to be constructive, you could've posed all these concerns in a different way, and we all could have talked about them. But no, you wanted your 'fire and forget', to then to scurry back to the safety of your self-congratulating cronies!

fimbulwinter

PS- the reason i know about this post and fourm is that i was alerted to it by another concerned poster in the other forum. many people there have come to the same conclusion about "iceman" as i have: that he is a somewhat winning, small stakes NL housecat who looks in the mirror and sees a lion. I feel sorry for any of you who have had to learn the game VIA these forums; i can only imagine that my own progression would have been much slower or possibly never happened had i accidentally started out here.

We have numerous testimonials from players who were losing players, found this forum and then migrated into being winning or vastly improved ones. In my opinion, this is one of the friendliest places to learn and comprises excellent information from solid players. Well, if you're not new to BTP, you already know how good our membership is (in terms of skill and friendliness).

What is this other forum?

I happen to read both forums.

I happen to believe that fimbul has personalized disputes with Ice (and vice vera).

I happen to believe Ice reports his win rate honestly.

I happen to believe that there are players more skilled than ice and that many of them post on the other forum. Many of them play 10/20 and some play 25/50 (that's dollars) blinds no limit poker. It stands to reason that they would be better. I have also read posts ice has made there where he acknowledges that others know more than him. I think fimbul likes to pick on him.

I think fimbul hinting that ice might not actually play 200nl (and therefore questions if he can even beat that level) is absurd. I can beat the 200nl and think that ice is better than me.

I think that if ice was trying to scam he wouldn't make a public post he would hit people up via pm's and emails. I certainly don't think he would do it prominantly on his own site. He has also given out enough info about his real life self (assuming that he didn't plan a scam like this 2 years ago lol) so that he could be tracked down in real life and humiliated. A police detective accused of fraud would not fare well for his reputation and unless he's going to pick up 100 grand and retire I don't think it would be worth it even for a shady guy in his position.

I think that 1000nl is tougher than 200nl. I think it's harder to nut peddle at the 1000nl and it's more important to disguize hands there, but I don't play that high.

I think ice is reporting honestly about the size of his bankroll and the reasoning he wants to share the risk with others when moving up.

I think that most times when people back another player they take 50% of the profits and 100% of the loss. Ice's deal is allowing people to keep 100% of the profits of their share. That is unheard of. I assume that's why he is planning on disolving the deal rather quickly and has been upfront about that.

I'm pretty risk adverse myself. I'm still rebuilding my bankroll that I pissed away on non poker things. If my bankroll was large enough I wouldn't think twice about throwing $500 towards ice's deal if my bankroll was 10 grand or more. I actually regret not being able to jump on this opportunity. Don't do coke lol

My comments interspersed in red on Fimbulwinter's original post.

Feel free to raise questions to ice about Fimbulwinter's post if you have concerns. Ice has nothing to hide and will answer them honestly, as he always does.

We await ice's return.