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How about this one?

Postby iceman5 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:34 am

$5/$10 NL

Solid player raises to $40 in EP. I call with JJ and we're heads up.

Pot is $95. The flop comes [Ks][Js][4s]. He bets $35......your action?
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Postby briachek » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:41 am

I think i would either raise to $110 or call to see that the turn isn't another spade.
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Postby Xaston » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:44 am

That bet is awful small. Looks like he really doesn't like that flop, although he is a solid player so I imagine he'd be more consistent in his bets whether or not he liked the flop, so perhaps he did like the flop!? I'd say bump it up to $120.
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Postby rdale » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:49 am

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Postby shamdonk » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:50 am

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:56 am

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Postby ChipMagnet » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:06 pm

Paul in Central Florida
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Postby Nashvegas » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:13 pm

Whatever, that guy is full of it. AQs might be the only possible made flush that he'd raise early like that, so I don't buy it. Some wouldn't even raise AQs, so the odds of a made flush are practically zero, right? So when he bets small, is he playing KK? NO. He would protect that hand better, right? So you are clearly ahead.

I reraise him another $90. Doesn't have odds to chase his flush, but he might do it anyway, netting you some +EV in the long run. He doesn't even have odds to chase with A [As]. You can take this pot out on the turn if a spade doesn't hit.

So yeah, raise it another $90, and if he calls then bet another pot-sized bet on the turn. If he has KK or AQs, then you are pretty screwed, and if I were you I would be comfortable with that. I play under the assumption that I'm ahead but he probably has the spade outs and maybe 2 additional outs to a higher set.
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Postby iceman5 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:22 pm

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Postby Mad Genius » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:39 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:44 pm

Why would you smlloth call $30 into a $95 pot when it looks like hes pricing himself in for the flush draw.

He has with KK, [As][Kd], [As][Ah], or [As][Qs].

If he has KK, all the money is going in one way or another.
If he has [As][Qs], I could just call, but I doubt Im folding the turn no mater what he does anyway
If he has [As][Ah] or [As][Kd], I want to get all in now.

I dont understand why you would let him only bet 1/3 pot and get away with it.
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Postby bensberg » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:47 pm

All in.
:x <--- constipated
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Postby Xaston » Fri Aug 05, 2005 12:47 pm

Wow. I really think you have to fold here. I don't believe I'd do it, but I think it's the right play.

You're either a 2-1 favorite over AA or AK with the A of spades, a 2-1 dog vs a made flush, or a massive 14-1 underdog vs. KK.
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Postby Nashvegas » Fri Aug 05, 2005 1:02 pm

Ice, I'm definitely playing for his stack. I mean my stack. The guy has [As] A or [As] K, and you are +EV.

If he's solid, I really really don't think he plays KK that way with a small small bet on that flop. I'm a little more scared of AQs after that reraise, because he might be putting you on a small flush, not wanting another spade out to kill the action.

You don't have to think you're ahead to call. You just have to give yourself a little over a 40% chance, right? Anyway, I think I have >50% chance to win this pot, so it doesn't matter what the details are. Push him all in and take a deep breath...... "nospadenospadenospade.... DAMN"... sorry Ice.
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Postby CocaCola » Fri Aug 05, 2005 1:06 pm

if he has AA or KK, a solid player isn't gonna bet a puny amount into that flop. the bet looks like its supposed to induce a bluff, and when he rereraises you, it looks like his play worked, im gonna guess he has the flush already
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