AA and a crazy board

[Twelver]

Villan is a competent tag. I am really lost as to what to do on the turn. any bet commits me, and the only hand I can see myself being ahead of is K . On the other hand I am behind JJ/QQ/AK. With JJ and QQ making up like 75% of his range. But is check folding to his shove way to weak tight when I have 10 clean outs if I am behind?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) from (Format: Bet The Pot)

SB ($130)
Hero ($207.10)
UTG ($585.40)
MP ($286.65)
CO ($270.70)
Button ($265.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
UTG raises to $8, 4 folds, Hero raises to $24, UTG calls $16.

Flop: ($49) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $45, UTG calls $45.

Turn: ($139) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $526.4 (All-In), Hero ??? and he insta shoved when I checked.

[shamdonk]

[droqqa]

[RedBarracuda]

[GodlikeRoy]

Surprisingly, this is a clear-cut call.

I put the hand range of your opponent into pokerstove.

The range I gave him: KcKd,KcKs,KdKh,KdKs,QQ-JJ,4c4d,4d4h,4h4s.

I think he folds 44 preflop about half the time and a couple of times with KK he would 4bet preflop or shove the flop. Other than that, this is pretty much his range.

Your hand has 48.674% equity vs this range. If you add even one combination of AQs, you have like 52% equity. Definite call.

Even if you add things like flush draws (89d or whatever) it would still be a call, though I imagine he would shove the flop with those a very high percentage of the time. And the times you're up against a made flush can be offset by him having other random hands like the other AA, or a bluff (he's almost never bluffing, but you never know when someone is tilting or w/e so you have to account maybe a 2% chance of this)

Anyway, call.

Shoving the turn may be a better option but I cbf working anything more out atm.

[fplouc]

[GodlikeRoy]

[Twelver]

[k3nt]

Why is AK not in his range? Is it completely impossible that he has some random suited connector that just caught the flush?

If these hands are not possible, then you have a ton of outs vs his range of hands that beats you (QQ/JJ/44): any K (4), A (2), or diamond other than the (8) = 14 outs. 14 / 44 = 31.8% to win -- almost enough to call even if he flips over his cards and shows you his set! Add in hands like KK and AQ and bluffs and it's a super easy call.

OTOH if he can have AK or any two diamonds here, life becomes a lot trickier.