by Felonius_Monk » Fri Jan 13, 2006 2:33 pm
I think it's a tough question, Tim, but to some extent the hands of Bush and (probably even more so) Blair are tied by having lied, or "mislead", however you slice it, about Iraq (I wasn't against invading Iraq to remove Saddam, personally, but I do disagree with elected leaders basically lying to the country as a whole to get the job done.). Because the shakedown has been a very bloody and unpopular war, and a whole raft of terrible press and political opposition for both leaders, it's really restricted their ability to deal with a country that actually poses a genuine potential threat as a known supporter of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism (i.e. Iran) when that threat arises through the means of the re-initialisation of their nuclear programme.
So,without going into too much waffly detail, my thoughts are:
1) A country with one of the largest and most plentiful supplies of oil on the face of the world doesn't really require nuclear power.
2) Despite the fact they are considered something of a "rogue state", Iran's leaders aren't entirely insensitive to the international picture, in terms of instinct to survive. The chances of a direct nuclear attack would be minimal, even if they were eventually able to create an atom bomb (which would be basically impossible to do without the whole world knowing about it).
3) So the big danger comes from the fact that the Iranian regime and much of the political landscape in that country is supportive of fundamentalist, jihadist islamic terrorism. And, of course, the fact that nuclear material could fall into the hands of such groups.
4) Perhaps reassuringly, atomic weapons are VERY difficult and technical to develop and build. It took Pakistan and India 20 years to develop the A-bomb, and that was without the political instability and potential aggression from the west that Iran would risk by undergoing similar development. Also, making nuclear weapons requires technical knowledge that may well not be present in Iran, so they'd probably need some external help. Furthermore, atomic bombs require very refined weapons-grade plutonium, and manufacturing that is something that would be spotted (or at least inferred) by espionage from satellites etc. It would be very hard for Iran to develop anything weapons-based on the quiet. The "dirty bomb", oft-quoted potential terrorist threat (which uses non-weapons grade uranium or other isotopes in a conventional explosive device) is not actually a nuclear fission device and wouldn't be half as damagin as you think. Even if a terrorist group did get hold of a large quantity of uranium, and managed to get it into somewhere like NYC or London (which would be difficult), the damage caused by detonating such a device wouldn't be that great compared to regular explosives. I think it's reckoned the death toll would be in the dozens, or perhaps hundreds, from such a weapon, and not the apocalyptic scenario you'd get from a nuke. Still dreadful, of course, but not quite "the sum of all fears". So as long as we can identify and prevent Iran from developing a full-blown fission device (which, as I've suggested, probably shouldn't be THAT hard for us to do), it might not be as much a threat as you'd think. I hope. Gulp....
5) We (the UK) and the US would have a lot more leverage on a military level if (and it is an "if") this situation escalates if we hadn't lied and fabricated unproven threats to invade a basically non-threatening country with an admittedly tyrannical regime. Should've considered that a couple of years ago, really...
The Monkman J[c]
"Informer, you no say daddy me snow me Ill go blame,
A licky boom boom down.
Detective mon said daddy me snow me stab someone down the lane,
A licky boom boom down." - Snow, 1993