by k3nt » Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:16 am
New England is in. Indy is in.
Cincinnati and Denver lead their divisions at 9-3 and definitely have the inside track for the next 2 slots.
That leaves Jacksonville (9-3), KC (8-4), San Diego (8-4) and Pitt (7-5) fighting for two spots.
Jacksonville has the best record of the 4. They also have an almost guaranteed 3-1 finish (lose to Indy, then beat San Fran Houston and Tennessee), so they'll finish 12-4 and make the playoffs, probably as the top wild-card team. They will then play New England in the first round of the playoffs.
All of a sudden, Pittsburgh has the worst record of the 4 bubble teams. They close with 4 games that looked easy about 6 weeks ago, but the first two now look tough (Bears, then at Minnesota). They will definitely win their last two (against the Browns & Lions), but is it going to be enough?
The poor Chargers get Miami, but then go to Indy and then to KC before closing at home against Denver.
The Chiefs have it even tougher, IMO: apart from their home game against San Diego, they have to go to Dallas and the Giants and then play Cincinnati at home.
KC could close 0-4 or 1-3. San Diego could close 1-3 or 2-2. Either one gives Pitt a real chance to get back into it.
I have no clue who wins any tiebreakers.
In round 1 of the playoffs, whoever wins the last wildcard slot will play the division winner with the #3 record. Right now that looks to be either Denver or Cincinnati. So we could see a third Pitt-Cinn game, or a third SD-Denver or KC-Denver game.