I am on the button and have $400. UTG raised to $10 and I re-raise to $30 to get rid of the blinds. Now HU. He had about $300.

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Board:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.6061 % 44.85% 05.76%
Hand 2: 49.3939 % 43.64% 05.76%

I am sure I have the best hand on the flop. No way he raised to $10 with AA, KK or AK. Maybe A3 but I doubt it. 33? Nah.

He checks and I bet $40 into a $60 pot and he goes all in. I really do not like to coin flip my stack but the pot has $100 dead money to fight over. I figured that he must be on a heart draw but I did not think he had the Ace - my mistake was to bet. Sometimes I get too agressive for my own good. Keep the pot small with a weak hand.

I though along the lines of

Board:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.6061 % 45.15% 00.45%
Hand 2: 54.3939 % 53.94% 00.45%

Anyway I called an a hit the river and I lost.

The pot had $100 after I bet and I needed to call $230 to win $330. If I had not bet out on the flop I could have gotten away from the hand. I think it was a good call based on my read and the pot odds. My +EV was $59 or so.

Comments?

Somedays you are the bug and somedays you are the windshield. I ended up winning for the day but not that much.