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Not sure anyone will like this play :)

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Not sure anyone will like this play :)

Postby kennyg » Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:37 am

2/4 NL

Dealt 77 in the SB.

Folded to me. I call. BB raises to $14 with a full stack. I call.

(BB is a decent player. probably break even. Not really a calling station, but certainly not a shark.)

FLOP $28
865 rainbow

ugh...not again. I lead for $20. BB raises to $60. I move allin for $334.

Discuss.
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Postby shobute » Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:57 am

Last edited by shobute on Wed Nov 16, 2005 4:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby muszu » Wed Nov 16, 2005 4:31 am

It' s a good move if it works :D , and depends if you want a call or not
You have 8 outs for the str8, the case sevens might be good unless he has 88, so it might be a good move
Still , I think these all ins look fishy, wy don't you bet something like 220 for example, you would show more strength by makeing a pot commiting reraise no?
And it depends how many notes they have on you , they might see this move after a while
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Postby Aisthesis » Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:49 am

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Postby kennyg » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:23 am

"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
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Postby Aisthesis » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:44 am

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Postby T-Rod » Wed Nov 16, 2005 9:11 am

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Postby Stoneburg » Wed Nov 16, 2005 2:07 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 3:08 pm

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Postby kennyg » Wed Nov 16, 2005 5:56 pm

Yeha I'm curious about how much fold equity you need for this hand to be profitable as well.

Anyway, he said JJ and folded after a long while.
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Postby iceman5 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:07 pm

My guess is that he only needs to fold about 25% of the time to break even. I think a decent played folds at least 1/2 the time here.

Aisthesis? Where are you?
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Postby poker2006 » Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:14 pm

Well you win about 40% of the time if he has an overpair and your 10 outs are there.
If he folds 20% of the time, you win 0.4*80=32% for the times he calls, so you win 52% overall. You need 20% fold equity.

I don't really like the play because it screems like a draw. Most people will either see that, or just be too dumb to fold an overpair. 20% folds might be about the right amount.

If he has a full stack $200 like I understand, he's put in $74 already. He has to call $136 to win 200+74=274., so his odds are 2:1.

On a side note, Kenny I think it must be hard playing against you :). Some of the plays in these posts are pretty crazy :). You're putting the other players to tough decisions.
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Postby kennyg » Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:16 pm

na he had $400. not $200.

yeah i put them to decisons, but i'm the one that joins on these huge swings :)
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Postby MTPaid » Wed Nov 16, 2005 6:17 pm

I see most of the posters here and I know I don't belong posting in this thread, but as I'm studying Doyle's book, if you are playing someone tight who knows enough to lay down an overpair or TPTK then this is exactly the right move. No?

1 - He folds, you win.
2 - He calls, you lose, but the rest of the table realizes that if they play back at you it will cost them their whole stack.
3 - He calls, you hit your set or straight and stack him AND they realize that if they play back at you it will cost them their whole stack.

Obviously you need a huge bankroll and some "grapefruits" plus somewhat of a disregard for money (or at least the appearance of such to opponents) to play like this.

Now back to the people that know more than me.
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Postby Spank_her_Pair » Wed Nov 16, 2005 7:43 pm

(delete)
[5c] [7c]
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