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So I typed in "fold equity"...

Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:11 am

into the search function and it gives me 4101 results. :evil:
Instead of me having to sift through that many, could someone please explain or at least point me where I could find out what exactly this term means? I see you guys use it all the time, but just when I think I know what you're talking about when you use it, I realize I have no clue what it really means. :?
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Postby Zuccala » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:26 am

Dude, ill take a shot at this. When someone has little invested in the pot and u make a play on them. Say u push with a really good draw and such, you have alot of fold equity because they have little invested in he pot and are more apt to fold. If you do the same when they have alot invested in the pot, they are less likley to drop and u have lower fold equity.

I do not know the formula (its on here somewhere). You make money of all the times they fold, plus the amount of times you hit ur draw. The formula tell u what % of the time they have to fold to make it profitable.

I did an absoultley HORRIBLE job of explaining this i am sorry. But i tried and hope someone does a better job than me so you find out what u want, and i can learn a little too.
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:35 am

Ok I'll take a shot. Fold equity is a matter of estimating. Let's take a look at a hand I played recently.

I have [Js] [Ts] in LP and call a small raise. The flop comes down [Qs] [2s] [9d]. Ok, I flopped the straight AND flush draws.

Now. The original raiser bets the pot which at this point is $5, I push all-in. Here's the idea. Against a top pair hand like AQ, I'm actually a favorite in this hand, and against a set I'm even money. So obviously, I don't know what he has, but I can make some inferences, and thus estimate my fold equity. So lets say with whatever range of hands he could call me with I'm even money. In that case I win and lose an even amount of money in the long run, thus my EV is exactly 0. However, if he folds even 20% of the time ( a conservative estimate), then 1 out of 5 times I win the $10 which is currently in the put, thus giving me a +EV situation. This is the basic idea of fold equity. Which in turn is the basic reason for agression in NL, if you can get your opponents to fold their hands a given amount of the time, then you win the money which is already in the pot which can turn an -EV hand into a +EV situation, this is basically the entire premise of semi-bluffing as well.

Hope that helped.

-Justin
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Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:48 am

Thanks fellas, that was a good enough explanation for me I think. It gives me another question now. I hope I ask this well enough that you guys understand what I am trying to grasp here.

Going by JJSCOTT2's hand he used for the description, if you are even money but the guy folds 20% of the time and you pick up the $10 pot, which comes out to $40 for the 4 out of 5 times he DID fold, how do you figure it so that the 1 time out of 5 that he doesn't fold, you aren't losing a stack that is more than $40? Because the way I am understanding this, you could be risking a stack that is a LOT bigger than that $40. I'd hate to be losing 1 $50 stack for every 4 $10 stacks that I won. I must be missing something here I think or you guys wouldn't be using this fold equity stuff so much to decide whether or not to push.
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:51 am

Ahh, you're mis-understanding. I don't lose all the other 4 hands that he doesn't fold because I'm EVEN money. So I win $10 the one time that he folds. And I win the entire stack 2 out of the other 4 times that he calls, lets say $50. So in 5 times, I win $110, and lose $100. Making it +EV.
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Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:54 am

OK, I get it now. Thanks a lot. So what's the quick way to figure this on the fly? Or is this one of those formulas that takes too long to use while actually playing?
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Postby JJSCOTT2 » Sat Nov 05, 2005 12:58 am

Basically the entire problem with fold equity is that you're guessing. It's not an exact science like, say pot odds. You've gotta quickly figure what your chances of winning is versus a range of other hands that could call you, and then decide what kind of chance you have of making him fold. In the example that I posted, I would make this play every time because in reality I think my fold equity is much higher than 20%, he could just as easily be making a continuation bet with AK than that he has AQ or a set or anything else. Just for fun: He had AQ called and I missed :)
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Postby excession » Sat Nov 05, 2005 3:47 pm

'fold equity' the term used by 2+2ers when they make a ridiculous overbet bluff that gets called and they are trying to justify themselves afterwards..
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Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:04 pm

LMAO Excession!
If true, and I aint saying it aint, that has to be the funniest jab at 2+2'ers I've seen in at least a week.
Now, tell the truth, have you ever done it?
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Postby excession » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:19 pm

Have I made huge bluffs that don't work then I think they 'should'?

Sure it's my biggest leak by far in the small stakes ring games I play :shock:

Do I turn up on here or 2+2 afterwards whingeing about 'fold equity' or 'moves of honor' - nope..

The truth is that in the SSNL games I play in ($5-$20 MTT's, $50/$100 NL Full and 6 max ring, $15 Turbo SnG's) there is precious little 'fold equity' as there are far too many calling stations and folks that like to 'gambool' it up.

If you are short-stacked in a tourney then of course you have to push once you get below the 10xBB level or so and it is best to get your money in first, but the context I most see the phrase used in is to justify a push with poor hand, often in ring games, and it's a concept that has a huge amount of danger inherent in it for small stakes players.
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Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:30 pm

E,
I was just referring whether or not you have ever used the "fold equity" term. Sounds like you have not and are very against it.
As for using it, zuccala and JJSCOTT2 gave me decent explanations that I was able to understand. It makes sense to me now and if my mind worked fast enough I think it would be handy to use. But alas, that's not the case. I have a hard enough time figuring out pot odds and sometimes implied odds before my betting time is up. Maybe someday. But don't worry, you won't see me on here "whining" about it.
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Postby Zuccala » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:40 pm

There is basically fold equity ever in the low stakes i play, thats for sure.
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Postby excession » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:42 pm

LOL I'm pretty tongue in cheek above btw - of course 'fold equity' does exist and should be taken into consideration when you are thinking about your play.

Then again, the 'gap concept' exists too. Yet for example when playing a 10c/25c 'no foldem holdem' limit ring table you could entirely ignore it without any ill effects.

A great many folks never make big bets without strong hands at levels below $200 NL and have a nice win rate.. there are many aspects of most folks SSNL play that could be looked at before they need get too worried about 'fold equity'.
Last edited by excession on Sat Nov 05, 2005 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby SebQtaneus » Sat Nov 05, 2005 4:55 pm

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