$50NL @ Prima

the tightest, rockiest player in my PT database raises to $3. i am almost sure this means AA/KK. his PFR is so low that im not even sure he raises QQ or AK. over 1200 hands he has a PFR of about 0.6% he's got $30 behind him. i have QQ in the small blind....i know im behind and OOP and i almost consider just folding my ladies. but i call.

flop: J-10-9 rainbow.
pot size: $7

he bets $4. has $26 left and i cover him. he also makes some good laydowns....and only goes to showdown about 16% of the time. what do i do?

edit: his flop bets are almost always pot-sized. this $4 bet is an anomaly, as far as i remember.

jon

I would raise this flop for sure (to 12$). You have plenty of outs and he should fold KK, AA here.

MHFlush

i dont think my read is off. his PFR is 0.6% and i have over 1200 hands. that barely covers raising AA/KK. i have also seen him show down JJ/TT etc that he has limped/called raises with.

the one thing i will say is that i am aware that players can change their games up. maybe he's trying something new. maybe he's raising JJ or maybe he's bluffing with 54. i dont know. i do know that the few times i've seen him raise preflop...it's been AA/KK and nothing else. i do also know that i haven't seen him bet 1/2 pot before.

confusing situation. i have a bunch of these super-rocks in my DB and i am almost sure of the correct line to take against them. this is one of the very few times that a super-tight, predictable player has made me really have to think.

jon

OK, well if youre almost positive that he
1) will only raise with AA/ KK
2) Can make good laydowns
3) Only has $30 and raised $3..

I fold QQ every time.