by Aisthesis » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:24 am
Well, I will say that I have a lot of trouble laying this down, although I HATE making that kind of call merely for the sake of a split pot (basically, your thought here) with the possibility of losing.
Ok, so BB calls a mini-raise. I think this makes 74 less likely and 33 more likely, although there are several other hands with a 3 or a 7 in them that could be played here (A3, A7, any kind of connector, which also makes the split pot scenario that much more likely, since I think more of these are going to have a 7 than a 3). 34 is also possible, although weird here.
I also really agree with your flat calls here. You have immediate kicker issues if anyone has some kind of hand. So, I don't see much of a problem with trying to just keep the pot under control and playing along as long as the board develops favorably--as it does... just does it develop THAT favorably??
I'm pretty much going to discount 74 here. I think it's really about equally likely to 33, of which there is one instance in the deck.
I think the real "know your player" question is how often BB makes this move on some 3. Is he/she vaguely tight or generally trying to slam-bluff pots? I think that's the real issue.
Basically, if it boils down to BB definitely having at least a 7 here, I think folding is good. It's probably borderline, but you stand to win $21 on a split pot and lose $220 vs. 33 or 74. So, you basically have to split 10 times for every one time they have 33. That's actually probably pretty close to accurate, so I guess I'm still not sure about the laydown.
On the other hand, if there's ANY chance at all of that player betting a 3 that way (you look weak here), I think that definitively decides the case for a call.
I mean, you also look like you could be on a diamond draw or a straight draw, and I also don't see why quads in that instance would hit you so hard on the river. Quads WANT you to call with your 7.
Actually, the more I think about it, the less inclined I am to lay this down. I don't really even see why a 7 would bet that way, and I'm not at all sure that you're not up against a 3 (or worse--like just any PP, or a lone A) quite a bit of the time.
Unless you've just observed this player consistently moving in on the nuts, I think you'll actually WIN this hand a fair amount of the time, possibly even more often than you'll split.