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Tough laydown

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Tough laydown

Postby iceman5 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:58 am

$1/$2 NL....6 max

I limp UTG with [7c][6c]. Button min raises. She does this ALL he time which is why I didnt mind limping UTG. She will min raise with just about anything (raising 32%) and plays badly postflop.

BB calls and I call.

Pot $13. Flop [7d][3d][2c]. BB bets $4, I call and button calls. I maybe shouldve raised here but I had over $400 and BB had about $230. I didnt want to play a huge pot.

Pot $25. Turn [3s]. BB bets $6, I call and button calls.
Pot $43. River [7s]. BB pushes all in for $220 or so. What do you do?
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Postby laynegt » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:52 am

so he has a 7 or 33, or maybe just one 3. i think even the tiniest possibility of one 3 makes this a call. that and the betting doesn't strike me as quad 3s that much...not that it can ever really, but something like bigger flop bet followed by a turn check, would be more suspicious.

but clearly this isn't a big +ev call. with something like a 85/10/5 distribution over 7x/33/3x hands, i'm getting an ev of $10. against a non-muppet i could see just folding and avoidiing the tilt of seeing 33.
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Postby Stoneburg » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:00 pm

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Postby greggabe » Sun Oct 23, 2005 12:55 pm

I agree with Stoneberg, you played this so passively up until the river you really have no idea where you are at. This combined with the fact that most players won't make this move after you called him all the way down unless he has a 7 or better. If he doesn't have a 7 he has to worry that you probably do because you kept calling. He probably doesn't think he is going to be able to make a 7 lay there hand down because most players wouldn't be able to make that fold.

If I were going to play this hand past the flop I would have raised the flop and defined my hand better.
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Postby AlexMR » Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:45 pm

"What do you do?" Nobody has answered.

Are you guys capable of folding that? WOW. I suck, because I am not folding. If she has 33 she deserves my money. LOL.
[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
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Postby Xaston » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:30 pm

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Postby k3nt » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:58 pm

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Postby poker2006 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:25 pm

-- andyG [Ah]
I try to learn something new every day. Winning comes by itself.
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Postby Stelvask » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:07 pm

the amount of times that you have a donkey making this play without either A: 7x, or B: 33, greatly outweighs the number of times that a donkey makes this play with the single hand that has you beat.

if he has 33, then good for him. i call expecting a split pot at worst, and being not suprised if i'm ahead in the first place.
-[4h]-
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Postby rdale » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:11 pm

Is this a rhetorical question? If you lose to quads there isn't much you can do about it, except lose.

Call and call every single time, no point in raising, smooth calling may induce JJ to stay around :)
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Postby AlexMR » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:54 pm

[17:16] alitomr: http://micropenis.ws/forum/viewtopic.php?t=723
[17:19] mekosking: wow
[17:19] mekosking: i give that poof a week tops
[17:19] mekosking: before he snuffs it
[17:19] mekosking: I THINK THAT MAY BE NV
[17:20] mekosking: IN DISGUISE
[17:20] alitomr: LOLZ
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Postby Stelvask » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:01 pm

-[4h]-
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Postby iceman5 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:35 pm

This is 6 max and I did limp with 76s UTG. Im at 27% VIP so far. Im not the villain and I folded. I dont see any point in calling $220 into a $42 pot so I can split and get $20 back most times and lose a monster pot now and then even if its only 5% of the time. or less. I dont believe theres any chance he making that bet with less than a 7 because 99% of people online will not fold a 7 there and most wont even fold 88. He may have made me fold the best hand, but I doubt it. People who make idiotic bets like this will make other stupid moves and i will bust him later.

Edit...the flop was 743...not 732.......74 beats me.
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Postby greggabe » Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:31 am

I just realized that I misread the hand and did not see the fact that the board paired 3's. In that case I think I have a harder time folding it but I do agree that Ice is right, you are calling to split the pot at best and may be losing. I don't like the call here but it is tough in the heat of the moment to lay that down.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 24, 2005 3:24 am

Well, I will say that I have a lot of trouble laying this down, although I HATE making that kind of call merely for the sake of a split pot (basically, your thought here) with the possibility of losing.

Ok, so BB calls a mini-raise. I think this makes 74 less likely and 33 more likely, although there are several other hands with a 3 or a 7 in them that could be played here (A3, A7, any kind of connector, which also makes the split pot scenario that much more likely, since I think more of these are going to have a 7 than a 3). 34 is also possible, although weird here.

I also really agree with your flat calls here. You have immediate kicker issues if anyone has some kind of hand. So, I don't see much of a problem with trying to just keep the pot under control and playing along as long as the board develops favorably--as it does... just does it develop THAT favorably??

I'm pretty much going to discount 74 here. I think it's really about equally likely to 33, of which there is one instance in the deck.

I think the real "know your player" question is how often BB makes this move on some 3. Is he/she vaguely tight or generally trying to slam-bluff pots? I think that's the real issue.

Basically, if it boils down to BB definitely having at least a 7 here, I think folding is good. It's probably borderline, but you stand to win $21 on a split pot and lose $220 vs. 33 or 74. So, you basically have to split 10 times for every one time they have 33. That's actually probably pretty close to accurate, so I guess I'm still not sure about the laydown.

On the other hand, if there's ANY chance at all of that player betting a 3 that way (you look weak here), I think that definitively decides the case for a call.

I mean, you also look like you could be on a diamond draw or a straight draw, and I also don't see why quads in that instance would hit you so hard on the river. Quads WANT you to call with your 7.

Actually, the more I think about it, the less inclined I am to lay this down. I don't really even see why a 7 would bet that way, and I'm not at all sure that you're not up against a 3 (or worse--like just any PP, or a lone A) quite a bit of the time.

Unless you've just observed this player consistently moving in on the nuts, I think you'll actually WIN this hand a fair amount of the time, possibly even more often than you'll split.
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