What this is basically going to be for is randomly posting my thoughts on how things are going generally, my aims for next year, how i've got on with reaching 2005's targets and any random thoughts on omaha poker along the way. I'm hoping it's not going to end up being a forum for simply posting my results in a very dry kind of way, which is what seems to be the fate of many journals. I'm hoping it'll be a bit more interactive and (hopefully!) a little more lively and interesting. Hoping I'll be able to update every day or two, so give me a jolt if I forget...
TUESDAY OCTOBER 11th
Well, it's been a distinctly quiet last fortnight or so for me. The reason? My desktop PC died at the end of September- it'd been on its last legs for a while, didn't seem to boot up properly (had to reset the thing about 10 times before it finally "caught" and got to windows without freezing, and eventually the hard disk seemed so screwed, in conjunction with whatever was causing the mechanical boot problem, that it just stopped booting altogether). The treatment? Why, buy a new laptop of course, something i'd been thinking about for the last year but as good a way as any to replace my 3 year old machine with a slightly better PC and keep on the tables. So I splashed out £700 on a fairly decent Fujitsu siemens model, which should keep me occupied for a while yet. Hopefully, I'll take better care of it than the desktop.
Annoyingly, I hadn't yet got round to backing up all my results spreadsheets from 2004 and 2005 from the other PC, or, perhaps more seriously, my PTO. Thus, I don't (yet) have PTO on my new machine and have about 40k hands frozen on the hard drive of my previous computer, which i'm hoping can somehow be rescued but i guess I need to speak to someone who knows a little more about computers. It also means I'm having to resort to keeping my records on paper for a while, at least until I can get Excel sorted, although maybe it'll spur me on to get round to downloading to PTO a little more efficiently next year, I dunno.
Another issue with my new laptop is that, although it has a nice widescreen 15.4" display, I noted with dismay when I got it that I can't ramp up the resolution for multitabling. This means i'm going to have to play maybe a maximum of 6 (or, at a REAL push, 7) tables at once. Normally, I play 7 or 8, more usually 8 (which was really successful for me in September as I broke $4k for the month for only the second time this year in ring games). However, I think moving back to 6 might be beneficial for my game. It'll be good for me to play some more "thinking" stuff, rather than playing on rapid autopilot at all times, and maybe concentrate a little more on making some good reads and winning more small pots. This could be useful at Cryptologic, as I've noticed of late both the PLO and PLO8 tables seem to be tightening up ever so slightly, especially midweek. They're getting to the point of being only just a little more loose than Stars now, which is a site I've struggled at this year (i'm nicely positive, but a horrific run there in the last 3 months or so has taken my winrate right down to about half what I make at Crypto).
Of course, the other major enforced change that October is bringing is the change at Party. For those who've been on the moon for the last week, Party has now split off from the "Party Skins" servers (that used to carry all the party players, plus empire, intertops, eurobet etc etc), leaving the other party server sites high and dry with about 25% of the previous number of players on their tables. I can really understand why party did this, and I think it's great business on their part, though it may (for fairly obvious reasons) be bad for the majority of players. I'm not expecting this to impact on me TOO much, though - I do have a rake rebate at Empire (not at party) which means I won't be getting $100 or so rebate every month for my usual one or two tables of 100 and 200 PLO8, but hopefully it means that the Party tables will be freer of bonus whores, which (i'm hoping) will loosen the games right up to the days before they introduced the 100BB buyin. Admittedly, most serious break even rock-like BWs inhabit the ultra low level games, but (from what I've heard) the games that I play (which, at Party, is liable to be mostly PLO8 in the 100 and 200 buyins, for now) are certainly no more tight after the change; hopefully it stays this way. I haven't downloaded the new Party software on my laptop yet, so I'll check it out in the next day or so.
So, I played my first session last night (a pretty gentle one with only 5 tables mostly) since I was forced to finish my September run (I missed out on the $50 PokerPlex bonus because of the computer dying, grrrr). September was a spectacular return to form for me, I booked about 40-some hours and made over $4k, which is excellent after I had two dry months where I made only a little over $3k combined (albeit with a limited amount of play). So, I'm generally optimistic about the rest of the year but hoping to continue my winning form and maybe book out $30k for the year, which would be really nice. As I don't have my records to hand (due to computer issues!) I can't say how close I am, but I *think* I need to make about $6 or 7k in the last 3 months, very achievable if I can put in enough hours in between doing stuff to sort out my new apartment.
Anyhow, the session yesterday was a pretty dry one, the tables at Crypto (with the exception of one E200 PLO and, later, a slightly wild 100PLO8) were fairly rocky, I also fired up a $100PLO at Empire and a few various 100 and 200 PLO and PLO8s at Stars.
In monetary terms, the biggest hand of the night came at Crypto in the £200 PLO game. In dollar equivalent, this is basically a $400 PLO game and it's basically the highest I play. Anyhow, it was quite an interesting hand because I've still not made my mind up about it (I can't get the odds calculator on at work, so I can't figure out the exact, rather slim, EV calcs for the hand).
Anyhow, I had about £230 and was in LP with A876ds. This is a nice hand and one I usually try to raise in MP and LP, so I raised it up. I got 4 callers (or was it 3? working from memory here...) and the flop brought K94 with two diamonds (I had the A high flush draw).
Everybody checked to me, and with a (fairly) uncoordinated flop except to my draw and a decent little pot in there I decided to risk a semi-bluff, which seems a fairly reasonable thing to do here. An MP player who I hadn't played before and had no real read on check-raised himself all in. The bet was a little less than the size of the pot, about $90 into a total pot size of $290 if I called.
I had a bit of a think about this, and ultimately I decided to call (I was closing the action). I thought it was pretty close but the odds were probably in my favour to call rather than fold, and either way I couldn't possibly make a BIG error here by calling (calling down with 2nd set and having him show me top set would be a much bigger EV loss, even though my hand would be "better"). Plus, I am trying to loosen my game up a little bit.
Normally, a flush draw has between 25 and 30% equity against a set (other than in exceptional circumstances) as a rule. I estimated I needed about 30% equity to call, given his bet was a bit under the size of the pot. This is assuming he had a set of course.
Thinking about it rationally, I guessed (given no read) there was maybe (broadly estimated) something like a 65-odd% chance he has a set here, maybe a 25-30% or so chance he has top two or another two pair and is trying to snap off my (possible) AA hand, and maybe a 5-10% chance that he has a hand that is either not far ahead or that I have significant extra outs to beat (like a semi-bluff on AA, top pair with a wrap, or a bare wrap with a flush draw). Against the set I'm maybe 25% or so equity most of the time (perhaps a little more), against the two pair I'm up to above one third equity, and against the other random stuff I am potentially up to 40% and beyond. My 876 is not a great feature, but on this flop it carries a surprising amount of value - any 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, T or J gives me additional straight outs if I hit them on the turn. This could be worth 5-10% extra equity against my opponent, largely dependent on what he has.
Anyhow, as a total estimate, I guessed that (perhaps quite generously) my equity was in the 30-35% range and that, although a high variance play (which perhaps I should be shirking in my biggest game, although, what the heck, that's what bankrolls are for!), calling was perhaps marginally better than folding.
Anyhow, I called, he had KK (no flush draw). I don't have the odds calculator working (as I said before) but I'm guessing I am somewhere around 30% for the hand, so it was probably a tiny bit -EV given his hand but in real value terms my call wouldn't have cost me much more than 5 quid or so. I can live with such "mistakes". Anyway, I didn't hit and he won the £290 pot.
Having lost my largest pot of the evening, I ended up down overall. I lost a little more at the Cryptos (although I did make about $35 of the regular monthly bonus) and won a nice double through with top set in the $100PLO game at Stars, as well as a few smaller pots in the PLO8 games, to finish up a little over 100 there, making me overall about $120 or so down for the night.
The other interesting hand I played was in the $200PLO8 game.
I had something along the lines of AK24 with a suited ace in MP, raised it up and got one caller, who had position on me. The flop came K79 with two clubs (I had no clubs), and I decided to bet out. I bet, he called me. The turn paired the 7 on board. I bet out again, thinking it probably hadn't helped him, although my hand is now vulnerable to a lot of things. He called. The river paired the 9 on board, I checked, he bet about half pot. Now, the turn and river look like decent cards to me, at the time I had the feeling he either had quads or a busted draw/nothing. I reckon he'd have checked down a hand containing weak trips, given I bet all the way, although I guess a boat using the K was also possible. however, again I thought he might've been a bit more positive with this hand. I typed in the chat window he had "quads or nothing" and called, and won a nice pot (I believe he had some sort of busted draw). This was a good example of a river check to elicit a bluff; had I bet out I would've made busted draws fold and get called or raised by all the hands that beat me. The way I played it, I managed to lose the same amount if was I beat but potentially win more if he decided to bluff, so that river check netted me a nice $40 or so.
Anyhow, I'll keep my progress for the month updated here as I go (particularly given my lack of PTO and Excel at present!). So far, excitingly enough, it's:
Hours played in October: 2
Winnings: -$120
Hourly rate: -$60/hr
I hope to get in a few hours this week if possible; it's been a late start to the month and I have to get a few things sorted, poker-wise, starting with transferring my Empire BR over to Party (hopefully, they'll start giving me some bonuses now I'm actually going to be playing there! The bonuses now seem to be account-specific, and as I've only used Party to whore at once a month for the last 6 months or so I suspect I'm currently persona non gratis, but I'm guessing that'll change if I start to play regularly and keep an active account... Just hope they'll keep offering attractive bonuses to make up for my lost rake rebate, now they have a captive audience). I also need to rustle up all the Crypto bonuses (I now have 8 different sites running, so that's a reasonable amount of play) and I'd like to make some withdrawals from them too (I need another £1000 or so to finance all the work I'm having done on my new apartment). Stars seem to have a $150 bonus this month also, which is good news. I've also just remembered I can get about $80 or something by cashing in my Empire "VIP Club" points, which is well worth doing before I move my account - anyone else in the same position needs to check their empire point account, too - there's $1 for every 10 points or something, so it's well worth the few minutes it takes you.
Oh, and one last thing of note - you may or may not have gathered by now (depending on how good your comprehension is - pay attention!) that I've recently (well, about a month ago actually...) bought a new apartment, which has somewhat drained my finances, and the place seems hungry to absorb yet more of my money on electricians, kitchens, carpets and paint etc. Although I have just about enough money to do everything I want, I thought it'd be fun to track my poker winnings in the next few months with a few essentials and luxuries I need to buy for the place. It'll be quite cool to say after a week or two of play that I've made enough for a big screen TV or whatever, so it should give me a nice feeling of accomplishment and a bit of a reason to put the hours in, now i've actually got the place!
High on the list of "wants" is:
New fridge ~£300
Flatscreen 35-40 inch TV for the living room ~ £700
Repair/replace desktop PC? £?
Beer fridge for the living room

Shower installed in bathroom £??? maybe £500 ish?
Dishwasher for kitchen - £need to research...
Painting and retiling in kitchen and hallway - £800 ish?
Drinks bar - £?
So there's plenty there to look forward to getting

Anyhow, this has been a bit of a marathon, phew... better sign off!
Monk
xxxxx