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Continuation bets again

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Continuation bets again

Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:33 am

First of all, I should mention that I've been having pretty good luck lately with reducing my continuation bet to more like 2/3 pot rather than full pot. Actually, I even went with just a little over half the pot for a while and was liking it.

In terms of betting quantity, I think a pretty decent policy might be to go with just a little over half the pot on boards that have at most one draw but with closer to 3/4 or even close to full pot if the board has 2 draws out there. What I'm talking about here is if you have a board like K82 rainbow, there's no draw at all. With K63 rainbow, the only real draw is 54 to the straight (interestingly, I have the impression that most bad loose players aren't calling raises with a good hand such as 54, however, but are much more likely to be in there with KXs--for whatever that observation is worth). And with K63 with 2 to a suit, you have 2 draws. The problem with these double draw boards is that you can't know which draw they're actually on.

I THINK that means that it's better to protect your hand at higher price on each street, although another way of looking at it might be that you don't want to get way out on a limb here, too. So, maybe a smaller continuation bet isn't bad in that situation either (?).

What I really wanted to talk about here, though, is the old problem of continuation bets when you're getting all kinds of frivolous callers or even raisers (I had one of these guys last session). I think the best counter-strategy here is simply to shut down the continuation bets for a while but keep your raising hands. Basically, you just try to stay ahead of their expectations with the intention of getting as much as possible in on your good hands.

I'm still a little fuzzy on the details, so I'll just leave it at that for the moment and throw in some more ideas later.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:54 am

Here's a hand that really aggravated me on the continuation bet issue:

I have KK in MP, and my opponent, as it turns out, has A7o. I knew he was very LAG-ish by the time this hand was played, but I wasn't completely clear on just what he was doing. Here's what happened:

Maybe one limper, and I raise to $20, getting only this caller (can't remember whether he was in BB or limped in EP). Flop pot is thus $45, and the flop comes Q72 rainbow. Checked to me, I bet $25 and get minimum raised (!!). Bear in mind he has A7 here!

Well, knowing his hand now, I know I should have raised right there, but any normal human being is representing a set. I don't really believe he has one but decide to play the hand defensively. There's absolutely no draw on this board anyway, and I'm putting him on AQ.

Ok, now the turn comes an A. He checks, and I check. Now, I'm really wondering what he has. Maybe he thinks I have AQ.

River is a blank, and he bets $125 at me. I decide that this is a bet that doesn't want to be called. The guy's definitely a LAG, so I call to see his A7 for 2 pair.

Well, I don't know what I could really beat on the river except KQ (which was my optimistic hope), but maybe it was $125 well-spent--at least if I can figure out how to nail this dude. He's obviously asking for it and seems to be playing the game frequently, at least he was this weekend.

My first question is how to proceed on continuation bets against him.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:21 am

Ok, another hand, later in the same session, against the same player: I raise AK in LP to $30, 2 callers, including same LAG. I miss the flop and check. He obviously bets the turn and takes it down.

Here's my solution: Bet (for the moment) when I hit, and don't respect his raises.

The real question is whether to re-raise or not, and I'm actually inclined not to. What's interesting about my KK hand is that he checks the turn when he hits his 2 pair. I interpreted this as fear of AQ or AA, but in light of his subsequent play, I really think it's not that. I think he was wanting me to bet into a hand that he now assumed was good.

Actually, I think there's a decent chance he would have bet hard with the UNIMPROVED little pair. If that's the case, then it's really better indeed to just call him down rather than come over the top on the flop. Well, there's yet another hand I had against this guy that's relevant on this issue, but I don't want to get so many different hands into the mix that this post becomes even more rambling than it already is. Basically, he made a huge turn checkraise (in a bad situation for me) on a very weak hand.

What I'm really still not sure about is whether it's better to fight fire with fire or just to call this guy down.
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Postby T-Rod » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:32 am

On hand where guy min raised with A7--I think you have to handle the min raise one of two ways. You either fold because you think its a monster OR you call it and bet the next street. On the next street if you bet a decent amount, a "monster" is going to push and your decision is easy. If he didn't have a monster, he probably folds. You were screwed though as he hit his monster on the turn.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:40 am

Ok, 3 hands against the same player, this time with more detail.

1) The KK hand I already mentioned. At this point in the game, we both have deep stacks. LAG has over $1,000 when I sit down, and I have $800 or so when the KK hand is played.

What I'm unclear on here against this player with deep stacks what will really happen if I re-raise him to $200 on the flop. Also, I'm not clear what will happen if he doesn't improve.

This brings me to hand 2:

2) LAG mini-raises from EP ($10), and I call with 76s. Still deep stacks. The flop comes 875 with 2 of some suit (not mine--I think the board had diamonds, and I had hearts). I think we had at least 5 callers here, including a guy whom I'll just call "joker" (he has the nickname "ATM" at the casino, if that says anything).

LAG bets out $25 (pot of $60), joker mini-raises to $50, and I make it $125 (I figure I have little fold equity right now but want to confuse the issue at least and give myself enough of a pot to get somewhere if I hit). LAG and joker both call. As it turns out, LAG has 9c8c for TP, and joker, who is somewhat short-stacked, has A5. Joker now has only about $50 left.

Turn is an offsuit Q, and I make a horrible play here. It's checked to me, and I bet $200. Well, I'd been itching to try this betting the turn on a missed straight draw, but this obviously was NOT the spot. Anyhow, LAG now checkraises to about $600, which would put me all-in. Joker calls, and I fold after calculating the odds on straighting, which I just don't have.

3) The next day (I played a 19-hour back-to-back session this weekend), LAG shows up again with a short-stack, and we have the AK hand where I missed and checked. LAG bets the turn, and I fold.
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:59 am

Ok, I guess all of this has gone in the direction of how to crack this LAG rather than the continuation bet issue. Actually, on the continuation bets, I think mixing it up a little is pretty good--for the moment, checking when I miss, betting when I hit; if he catches on, then switching that up.

Then we still get to the KK hand. I think just calling him down really is the better play here--mainly in the interest of controlling the pot-size. I honestly don't want to be playing KK unimproved for $800 even against a LAG. If I make it $200 on the flop, I think he'll probably call with his A7, and I'm not sure I can get away from it if he improves.

Here's my strategy at the moment:

1) Try to get a decent pot going and just call it down on medium strength hands (TP, overpair), keep the pots somewhat under control here by not raising excessively.

2) Don't be shy about raising sets (including top set in raised pots) and other monsters. This guy is likely to call. This is also likely to create some pots that he'll stab at for the whole nine yards from deep stack. If he's short-stacked, though, give him some room to take the initiative when you hit a monster (maybe just flat call, maybe raise enough where he still has some stack-depth to take a shot at it).

Does this sound like a solid way to go?
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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:04 am

tr, I don't like calling and betting the next street. No point in giving a free card. If I'm going to bet the next street, I'd rather just raise immediately.

But I think this hand plays MUCH differently against this particular player. While I obviously played my semi-bluff hand horribly, I think I can stand by my KK play on this one. I do want to have a general idea, though, as to how to take this guy out of the game entirely--unless he has more income than I think he does.
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Postby T-Rod » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:10 am

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Postby Aisthesis » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:32 am

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