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a gutshot draw on the turn

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a gutshot draw on the turn

Postby kennyg » Fri Oct 14, 2005 11:29 pm

2/4 NL

I have $800 in front of me. I have a very aggressive image (if anyone is paying attention.)

Dealt QJo in LP. Couple of limpers. I limp.

FLOP $16
K84 rainbow

Checked around.


TURN $16
K84A rainbow

Checked to me, I bet $16 hoping to take down, but knowing I have 4 clean outs as well.. EP wakes up and mini raises to $32.

Here is my thinking during the 10-20 seconds they gave me:
According to my notes, this guy mini reraises monsters and is a HUGE calling station. I can expect to be called for good amounts of money, if he has a legitmate hand. I have to put him on two pai or a set right now.

I look at his stack. He has around $350 in front of him after the raise. I look, it's $16 for me to call. Gutshot is about 1 in 11 so i multiply 11x $16. I need to make around $200 for this hand to be profitable. Since I figure I can get his whole stack on the river, and there's already $60 in the pot, I'm good to go. Call.

RIVER $80
K84AT

well i hit the miracle one out of 11 card. Opponent bets $50, I put him in for his last $300. He calls quickly with AK.

Results:
Kenny wins $773 pot.


I'm a lucky bastard. Sometimes I feel like it's too easy, but when my notes and reads are this good, it's hard to lose. I'm not trying to show off, but I did think some people would like to know my thought process of calling a raise with just a gutshot draw.
"I'll take KennyGs advice before Sklanskys every time. "
-Iceman

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Postby rdale » Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:23 am

I might be one of the few people that believe gutshots can be correct to "chase". In this case you lead which is better, and got full implied which is the goal. I like the opponents stack to be a little deeper than just 11:1 that is only about even money on the play. Although the more likely they are to call off what they have at even money the more likely I am to try...

Beware though, this is a slippery slope to fancy play, it starts with pretty reasonable plays and degrades from there :)
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Postby briachek » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:28 am

kenny, you arrogant bastard!
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby rickjr82 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 1:54 am

from here at 25nl(now at 50nlas of today) cheers! if he gives you odds **** him. i hate those minraising bastards anyway.(unless anybody reading this happens to be a minrasing bastard...and then we're cool... keep it up)
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