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Win rate vs standard deviation

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Postby Ricardooon » Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:06 pm

I've just made the jump from $50NL to $100NL and while it is early days I don't think it is a totally different game, but it does take a while to get into it. I start a new level playing only two tables and really concentrating on the play and trying to spot different patterns. It also takes a little while to figure the betting out as you do see the value in dollars first before you figure the game value.

I guess its a matter of comfort level. I have made my BR from others and now taken out my investment ages ago so I am not adverse to taking shots above my level or playing with a slightly smaller roll (I have about $1300 in cash right now but about $1800 in various bonus schemes). At the end of the day it depends on what you are playing poker for, if ist to make cash then you want to play the highest game you feel good at where as if its for fun you do whatever you want.

Rich
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Postby black_knight6 » Fri Oct 07, 2005 6:56 am

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Postby snok » Fri Oct 07, 2005 8:10 am

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Postby Zuccala » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:19 am

My win rate at $25NL is $3.46/hr with a std. dev of $22.96/hr. Is that good? Can someone explain to me what this means? LOL
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Postby AlamdeaMike » Fri Oct 07, 2005 12:36 pm

Don't lose your entire stack in an unraised pot or with only one pair.
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Postby Alastor2262 » Fri Oct 07, 2005 1:40 pm

sorry guys iam new here and really enjoy reading ur post, getting a lot of information from them and hopefully it will help me improve my game.
but i can't find that standard deviation info (iam using PT by the way), any one could help out and tell me where can i find it
thanks
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Postby AlamdeaMike » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:00 pm

Don't lose your entire stack in an unraised pot or with only one pair.
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Postby Alastor2262 » Fri Oct 07, 2005 2:10 pm

thank you for the speedy response
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Postby AlamdeaMike » Fri Oct 07, 2005 3:22 pm

Don't lose your entire stack in an unraised pot or with only one pair.
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Postby LiLNipsFatal » Fri Oct 07, 2005 6:15 pm

Maybe these are the types of numbers you are talking about Iceman....

over the last 10,559 hands of 2/4 NL at Party 6 Max, here are my numbers:

PTBB/100 Hands - 8.46
SD/100 Hands - 68.59

on another account of mine over the last 14,657 of 2/4 NL Party 6 Max

PTBB/100 hands-3.83
SD/100 Hands-39.91

I currently have 37 Buy-ins at the 2/4 NL. I typically 4 table and the variance is higher though so I'm not about to move up yet till my numbers get better.
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Postby LiLNipsFatal » Fri Oct 07, 2005 6:20 pm

Now I'm getting confused with the terminology....

Which number are you guys using for your first number?

1. the BB/HR

2. BB/100 hands

3. True Win Rate after clicking the check box under session notes
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Postby iceman5 » Fri Oct 07, 2005 7:16 pm

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Postby black_knight6 » Fri Oct 07, 2005 9:51 pm

We don't really ever look at bb/hr or $/hr...bb/100 (or ptbb/100) is all that we really refer to.
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Postby Aisthesis » Sun Oct 09, 2005 3:36 am

Hmmm... I'm at 14.6 BB/100 almost all in 2/5 NL B&M, but with about 200 5/10 hands mixed in. Overall 13.6k hands.

No clue on standard deviation, but "adjusted" for dumb plays, I'd have 20.5 BB/100. I did have an actual (fairly sizeable) down month in August (included in the current stats).

While pretty decent, I really think B&M needs to be close to 20 BB/100. You don't play as many hands and you should have more exact reads as well as more time to think about your play.

What do the "other forum" guys have as win-rates at higher stakes? I just don't see much more than 20 BB/100 against even a halfway decent field as realistic unless you can just completely run over them (which is hard to do if they're at least halfway decent).

Just out of curiosity: Have any of you guys found another good poker discussion board? Really, since UPF, this is the only one I really like, although maybe I haven't explored enough. Another I've been thinking about checking out in greater detail is Negreanu's board, but my first impression is that it feels more like a "fan club"--albeit with some interesting insights from Negreanu as well.

Here, there are obviously quite a few very strong players, and I feel like we usually can come to our own conclusions, but my own real complaint is that I kind of miss having occasional views from some of the "name" pros. While I don't even necessarily agree there, I did notice on UPF that they do often have a very deep understanding of some aspects of the hand. But, honestly, I don't find that depth among the 2+2ers. I have run across some interesting math there, and I haven't followed that board at all regularly except when once in a while I cruise by and find a more mathematically oriented topic that interests me.

Anyhow, not complaining at all about you guys. There are plenty of interesting hands that come up here and plenty of ideas to make me feel like I'm still learning. But there has to be at least SOME other board out there where you also get into some deep analysis of certain situations, strategies, etc. Have any of you guys found another poker forum around that you feel is actually worth following regularly?
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