by Aisthesis » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:40 am
Ok, on the flop with the flat call, I'd say he could have the following: AJ, 2 pair, JT, or a flush draw. Sets also possible but unlikely in an unraised pot. AQ is also somewhat less likely with the lack of raise (I see most people raising it, although not a definite). KQ is certainly very real. Oh, and I guess UTG+1 really CAN have one of the big pairs in a limp attempt with AA, KK.
When another Q hits on the turn, he raises. I think that eliminates flush draw and AJ. Imo it's most likely JT, KQ or AQ at this point. To the latter, you're drawing dead. To JT you're behind but with a lot of outs. I think I'd lay it down, even if it's better than 50-50 with JT over and against KQ/AQ (plus AA and KK as possibilities).
I guess if we want to get exact here, there are 6 KQ hands out and 6 AQ hands for a total of 12. And there are 16 JT hands out there.
The only thing that might relativize this a little bit is, since you're in BB, you think UTG+1 is putting you on a crappy ace. But I gather that your table image is generally fairly tight. If there's some reason why you might be looking like you might be making a loose stab, then I might make the call. But against players who are typically cautious about playing back at me, I think I'd lay it down (against that type, I think my analysis applies of JT or else made boat).
Also, your opponent is pretty deep, which I think also speaks against continuing with the hand unless you have reason to suspect your opponent of a semi-frivolous attack.