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all-in on a big draw

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all-in on a big draw

Postby ua1176 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 1:23 pm

$50NL @ Prima

Hero ($47) raises to $2 from UTG+1 with [6c][5c]. MP1 ($88) calls, MP2 ($44) calls, CO ($13) calls, shortstack SB goes all-in for $2.50 more. all 4 of us call the additional 75 cents.

flop: [7s][Ac][8c]
pot: $14.25

i check...MP1 bets $3, MP2 minraises to $6, CO calls $6. at that point there's $30 in the pot and i push all-in for $40 more. thoughts?

jon
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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:07 pm

This is going to increase variance of course but I like the play. You are getting just under 2:1 on your money and you are a coin flip against almost any made hand. Plus there is a chance that you could push out a bigger club draw. With the min raise on the flop you may be up against a set here but there is a good chance that with the pot the way it is both of them are coming with you anyways. So you are going to be getting almost 4:1 on your money and vs a set you are a 60/40 dog. +ev play any way you look at it.
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Postby k3nt » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:37 pm

Problem is the short stack who's all-in, if they fold you can only count on taking down the $15 side pot, you'll still have to outdraw the short stack since it's unlikely you have him beat right now with your 6-high. So your $40 bet only gets you the fold equity of ($15 pot * % chance they all fold). Not that much fold equity compared to the risk.

As for the chance of winning, that looks plenty good especially in a multi-way pot. Worst case scenario is a single caller with a higher flush draw. Best case is a couple of aces and say two pair all calling.

I'd be interested to hear other people's thoughts here, because this one has me stumped. I am not sure I like the push but I don't much like a flat call or a smaller reraise either. And a fold is out of the question.
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Postby poker2006 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:45 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:57 pm

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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 4:33 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

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Postby iceman5 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 4:59 pm

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Postby Rhound50 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 5:14 pm

"Its a pink handbag not backpack damn it." Godlikeroy

"From playing full tilt I wanna smash every garden gnome I see. That travelocity commercial puts me on instant tilt."
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Postby ua1176 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:28 am

well. i pushed. the flop bettor folded. the minraiser folded too. shortstack CO calls. pretty much exactly the opposite of how i wanted that hand to unfold.

SB who was all-in preflop had AK
CO had [Kc][Jc] for the nut flush draw (ouch)

i hit my straight and took the pot. knowing what they had...my play wasn't so great. but i definitely thought that the MP bettor and the minraiser would play along...or at least one of them would play along. clearly things did not go as planned.

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