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I dunno... what's your move?

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I dunno... what's your move?

Postby shobute » Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:42 am

1/2 -- I have $185, UTG has $200 and I don't have a read.

2 limpers and 1 poster to me in MP and I make it $12.
SB and the the 2 limpers call.

Flop [3c] [5c] [7c].
UTG bets $30 into $40 pot.
I minraise, other 2 fold.
UTG pushes.

I have [Ac] [As].

What's your play and what's your read?
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Postby Zuccala » Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:48 am

I don't think I woulda mini-raised. After he bet $30 into the pot, I would have just pushed there. The nut flush draw plus a backdoor draw aswell, is more than enough to make this play. I think he could be making this play with a set, or K[Kc]. When u miniraised, i think he knew u did not have a flush (yet!). What do u think? I'd like to add more but i'm late 4 work!!! :cry:
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Postby Proplayer44 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 11:58 am

I would call too. But would like to know if this is a +EV move. Your chance of hitting the flush is less because the other guy probably has at least one club too.
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Postby devilmollusk » Mon Sep 26, 2005 1:09 pm

I don't think this play = flush every time. It could be top pair with a flush draw, or an overpair with a draw.

So if I calculate right you must call your remaining $110 to win $350? 3.4:1 roughly

you have 7 nut flush outs worst case ~ 30% (he has the flush). If he has a flush 100% of the time this is still a worthwhile call. Add to that the chance he does not have a flush and this call is very +ev

I also agree that the min-raise is not a great play. I want to either push here or just call and hope to hit the nuts cheaply.
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Postby BigPhish » Mon Sep 26, 2005 1:28 pm

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Postby poker2006 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:38 pm

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Postby laynegt » Mon Sep 26, 2005 5:08 pm

ok here i go again and say what i always say...why in the world is everyone recommending pushing this flop?

on many days i would smooth call on the flop and let him keep the lead; i might pop him on the turn or i might continue to just call him. if you're not up for such a finesse, i would make a smallish raise to ~$75 (which might technically be more correct w/ the straight possibilities and sb still in, if i understand the action right)...but anywho, [Ac][As] is such a huge hand here why try so aggressively to get opponent to fold? give him another chance to bet out w/ a hopeless hand like 99 or the [Kc]. a push only gets called by two pair, sets, straights, flushes. bottom line, there's just no value in pushing here.

i personally wouldn't make a min raise there b/c...well, i feel dirty recommending a min raise...but i actually think it's ok, b/c it builds the pot and he'll likely call it no matter what when you have a very good chance of having the best hand and best draw. once he pushes back, you clearly have to call.
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Postby shobute » Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:47 am

Thanks for the replies...

I'm glad someone suggested he may have a set: in fact he did. 55.
I called his push but unfortunately missed my flush outs, while he improved to a boat.

Now... the reason I only minraised is because I was willing (perhaps foolishly) to go to the felt with this one.
If I raised more I would likely lose dominated hands.
And since I'm going to the felt anyway there's no hurry to get everything in if he does indeed have a set or straight or made flush.

But the replies seem to be contradictory... some people say my minraise was bad because it gave him odds to chase.
Someone else things that a smooth call is good because it lets me sap more money out of him.

So I guess the question is: how far are you willing to go on that flop?
Because the answer to that question determined my tactics for the hand.

I think if I can squarely put him on a set then it's a bad idea... I have 9 flush outs and 2 higher-set outs.
Going to the turn he has 6 outs to a boat and 1 to quads.
If he misses, going to the river he has 9 boat outs and 1 to quads.
(By the way, if he has a set I am just better than a 2:1 dog on this hand.)

But in this case I can't discount an overpair or a high club.
Last edited by shobute on Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Magz » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:28 am

I thought the push play was good until I read laynegt's post, then I liked that one better ;)
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Postby Barry5 » Tue Sep 27, 2005 5:39 am

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Postby Zuccala » Tue Sep 27, 2005 6:38 am

Hey, I thought it was a set!! I really think a push is nescessary. If you call and a another club comes, how much action are u going to get really? I think u have to put this guy to a decision when he really does not know if he is ahead or not. You may even get a weak tight player to fold a small flush or a set. If you call and a non-club comes on the turn, you can bet ur ass that he is gonna bet big....an ugly situatuion.

Basically, the flop is the only chance u are gonna get any money out of this guy! If the turn comes witha club, hes gonnna shut down, and if the turn comes no club ur not gonna have odds or any folding equity. I understand Leygnet's reasoning, I just would play this on different.
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Postby Stoneburg » Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:22 am

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