$50NL @ Prima

i get QQ UTG and make it $2 to go. folds to LP who reraises to $6. folds back to me. LP raiser is solid..his re-raise range, from what i can tell, is AA/KK/AK/QQ maybe JJ in position. i have a $95 stack and he has $50. i stacked him 30 minutes prior w/ my AA against his KK. i call his reraise and pray for a set.

flop comes rags. is it stupid on my part to lead for $10 into the $12 pot? or should i just check-fold?

jon

Lead... if he raises, fold...

i dont know what sort of $50NL you guys get....but when i play late at night on Prima, a lot of the players are pretty solid. once the total # of players logged on dips under 2000.....a disturbing percentage of them are kinda good. this guy was one of them. i was sure he didnt have AQ or AJ. and i was also sure i wasnt going to get to call him down. if i led and he had AK, he'd fold. otherwise he was raising and we were going to get all-in if i continued. my options were:

1. check/fold right away because i was almost sure he had AA/KK.

2. lead the flop and find out....fold to any serious action.

3. check-raise all-in in hopes of representing the set (not so easy...the highest card on the flop was a 9.....this guy can fold his overpairs but he's probably not going to believe i raised UTG w/ 99.)

i personally think i should have shown some discipline and check-folded. but i couldn't bring myself to do it. i led for $10 into the $12 pot....he raised all-in for $30 more. i folded. he showed AA.

jon

I think a check/fold is in order. He will have AA/KK a lot more often than AK/JJ and if he has JJ (and maybe AK) he might very well raise you off your hand. Out of position this is a "no set no bet" situation against a solid player I think.

If his reraising standards are that strict (and they are for a large percentage of small to medium stakes players who play full stacks) , then a check/fold is absolutely fine.

You would call that reraise with any pp because you're getting good odds to go for a set.

actually i would call the bet with 99 or 66 just as quickly as i'd call w/ QQ. i'd even feel a lot more comfortable playing with 99 or 66 because i dont get stuck in the tough spot of playing what could easily be the smaller of 2 big pairs. the difference is that i most likely would not have raised w/ 99 or 66.

jon

I've thought about this some more and tried to adapt your situation to what I play so I can make a better assessment of the situation. Since this is a 10 handed table I'm assuming, our villain has to give you credit for very a strong hand since you're UTG. Since he's still reraising your bet and he's pretty solid, it is very likely you are up against AA or KK. If was I to make this read and I had raised to $14 in a 2/4 game, I'd personally fold if I was reraised to $42 out of position (if my read is this good). Again, it doesn't matter if I have 66, 99, or QQ. I think it's bad poker calling that much money hoping to hit a set heads up if you're pretty sure you're up against a higher pair. On the other hand, if I still think there's a good shot he's got something like AK or JJ or even something like AQ or 1010, I'd have to lead at that flop with a $70 bet (assuming the pot has about $90 in it). Checking does absolutely nothing for you and essentially says "take the hand please, I don't care much for it". If you are calling ONLY for the set value and are sure he has AA or KK, then I guess a check/fold is fine. Again, I wouldn't personally do that but that's me.

Right now he pays $4 to win $52 (assuming he sets and stacks) which is less than 10% but more than 5% so in my book it's a "depends" case. Now this guy has already proved that he will be stacked with KK vs AA so I would guess that he's even more likely to get stacked with AA vs a set, so I think it is a call. Had he raised to $8 it would have been a fold but I think he IS giving odds to chase the set here.