2/4 NL

Opponent has $200...I have him covered. He's new to the table so I don't have a specfic read.

Don't remember the hand exactly..but I'll try my best.

I'm dealt [9c] in MP. Opponent raises to $16. I call, one of the blinds call.

FLOP $50
[Th][8h]

I flopped open-ended draw with hidden 3rd pair.

Blind checks. Preflop raiser bets $25. At this point he has somwhere between $150-$175 left. I raise $200 to put him in...blind folds. Preflop raiser calls quickly with QQ. I don't remmeber if he had a heart in his hand, but either way I didn't get any help and he was holding two of my outs.

So here's the question. Is the all-in the correct play here?

I don't like calling because if I hit the straight on the turn, I will not get paid off since it's so obvious (4 to the straight.)

Raising is good because of fold equity and seeing both cards...

Folding is good because it's low varience.

If this guy had a normal $400 stack I would raise to $75-$100, Fold to a big reraise or check the turn for the free card. The problem with raising $75-$100 here against the short stack, is it makes me commited if he comes overthetop... so why not put it all-in myself??


Obviously I got my money in here with the worst of it. What's your thoughts?

Kenny,

I use to mak that move before but now I dont. You need fold equity to maker that move profitable and they simply wont fold.

At the NL$50 tables they fold more to pot size bets than to all in bets that is why I dont like it. Anything that requires fold equity I dont do it anymore (not that much but damn, they just dont fold).

Lets supose he folds 1/2 of the times (yeah right):


50*(1/2) + 225*(0.165) - 175*(0.34) = 25 + 34.5 - 59.5 = 0

To be a break even move (bluff) you need him to fold 50% of the times. Assuming he has, like now, QQ, you are way worse, since he got two of your outs.

Could be a good move if you know the guy and he is capable of folding overpairs. A rare species in NL$50

just some stats for some more incite:

cardplayer has me on the flop to win from 23.5%-27% depending if he had the . Horrible.

If he has AA or KK instead of QQ.... I'm a 40% winner. That sounds a hell of a lot better.

Kenny,

I think a better option is to flat call and chase. He has given you 3:1 which are very decent considering the implied odds.

I´d chase until he makes a real bet

You might be right alex.

Since his fold equity is esstenially 0% with KK or AA, and I'm either way behind or way ahead of other hands (AK, AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ, TT, lowerpocket/connector)...a call may be correct in this situation.

His call of your all in is absolutley horrible.

99 is the only possible hand you could do that with that he a favorite against.

AA, KK, JJ, TT, 88, AK of hearts are all ahead of him.. AQ of hearts is about even.

Hes a moron who you had 0 folding equity against. You didnt know that at the time, but against 75% of 2/4 players , this is not a bad play. Do this against him with a set next time.

I think I would have called. Even if you hit your straight, a lot of players will not think you have a 9 there, so you might get paid. If you needed a K/Q for a straight, I think it would be much harder to get something out of him.

Aren't short stacks are generally worse players than full stacks? If that applies at 2/4, then maybe you downgrade him to a typical $200 or $100 level player and realize that your folding equity is pretty low against QQ KK or AA, and of course zip against JJ or TT.

I don't think your straight would be "obvious" at all if it hit. So I don't mind a call. As it turns out he's on QQ so if a Q hits he'll have a hard time laying down to your straight.

If not a call, then taking into account lack of folding equity due to his short stack, I probably fold it.