Hi guys - bodog NL $100 .5/1

Been losing - picked up EP and raised to my standard $6 to go. All fold.

Next hand UTG with and make it $6 to go. Get 2 callers.

Flop ($20) and I bet $20.

Next to act goes all-in $86 and next player goes all in with $61 and I call with my last $45.

First player on spade draw and second player has and I win a $201 pot.

I think the first play set the next play up.

While you won this hand, I promise you it was -EV to call, and I mean BIG -EV.

Here's why.

Worst Case (and most probable)--You were up against two all-ins. Most times at least one of those guys has a set.

Best Case--But let's say you actually knew what their cards were, would you risk your whole stack? I say, "NO" because you are really a coin flip to win.
Your kings have to survive not only a flush draw, but also no aces falling and no jack falling. Your chance of winning is the chance that neither of the other two win. The chances of player A OR player B winning are about 50% (see below). Thus, I wouldn't risk my stack.

Worst Case you are crushed and Best case is a coin flip = -EV

FORMULA- I figured out the chances using the formula... probability of A or B is the prob(A) plus prob (B) minus prob (A*B). Prob of A (flush draw-9 outs) is 34.97%. Prob of B (5 outs) is 20.3%. So the total is .3497 +.2030- (.3497*.2030)= 48.17% or a coin flip.

Its just easier to say if you are against two allins with an overpair, you are in a coin flip most times AT BEST.

I went to twodimes.net to check your chance of winning on the flop. It depends a LOT on what the spade draw cards were. I get you winning about 48% of the time if the flush draw guy does not also have a pair or a straight draw -- pretty much what trodgers said.

But overall I disagree with trodgers' conclusion. Yes, 48% isn't great, it's a coinflip, but remember that you're only putting in 1/3 of the pot. If someone wants to flip coins with me and pay me $60 for every heads and I pay them $30 for every tails, I'll do that all day long.

Also, the call on the river is just $45 into a pot of $20 + $20 + $65 + $65 = $170 (before the bet). If I have a coinflip to win $170 or lose $45, again, that's a bet I'll take all day.

Yes you can be in big trouble on the flop to a set.

But if you say you're dead half the time, that means we have a new calculation:

Half the time you risk $45 with a 50% chance of winning $170
Half the time you risk $45 with a 5% chance of winning $170 (call it 0% to make the calculation easier)

Overall, you risk $45 with a 25% chance of winning $170:

so 3 times you lose $45 = -$135
1 time you win $170 = +$170.

A small +EV on the call.

If the players are good, you will be dead or almost dead well over half the time so the call is -EV. But if you have no respect for them, or if as in the present case you think they have no respect for your cards, then call.

Also,

Assuming that I will win this 25% of the time.

I think that you have to count the $26 that I bet plus the 25% pot equity in the equation. The pot was $76 + $90 (my 45x2) = $166 and 25% is $41 + $26 = $66.

So if I fold every time in this situation I lose $66 so calling has less a -EV than folding assuming your caculations of EV = $35.

Folding EV = -66, calling EV = +35

Sklansky says that sometimes calling is better than folding even when they both lose because one is less of a loss.

Yes, considering the money you invested in the pot (which is not yours anymore) does seem to confuse things.

On the call at hand use pot odds and implied odds only. That's clear enough. Your explanation is very good. A fold is EV = 0.

On all hands for the life of the game I think you have to consider the 'investment' and 'pot equity' - I got this from Sklansky, Harrington and Fox.

I am not sure if they are right, if I am right or if you are right. *

I 100% agree that pot and implied odds should be used to decide if you should make the call or not.

But, if I fold every time in this situation I am out $66 each time - agree? Now, that might not mean I should call but it is part of the long term EV.

Yes, it is confusing.

Now, Harrington is mostly Tournament where the chips have a different value so protecting them is more important than in a ring game.

Fox on page 92 counts a fold as a -EV (the money you put in).

Bottom line - make the call if the pot odds or implied odds warrant it or if you have a good read on you opponent.

Thanks

I think it is Caro that says that... basically money you save can buy the same things as money you win.

Mike: the way I think about it is this. When you fold, you are out $0 on the fold. The $26 went away when you bet your KK preflop ($6) and on the flop ($20), which was the right thing to do at the time, knowing what you knew. The only question facing you NOW is whether to put more money in. Thinking about what you did before is only going to distract you from the question of what to do now.

Of course, it's possible to think about things your way (or Fox's way, or Harrington's way) if you prefer. But for God's sake, don't go back and forth. Pick one way of thinking and stick with it. It's hard enough to figure pot odds using one way of thinking, let alone trying to remember all the different things all the pros have said!

devilmollusk: yeah, Caro says that a lot. That's a great point and I need to think about it more. Money you don't lose is money you can spend, just as much as money you win is.

Thanks K3 - I try very hard to be consistant and use the pot odds (usually there are no implied odds with an all-in) to figure if the odds are there to call.

Most of the problem, as you know, is trying to figure out the hands that they might have.

Against a set or 2 pair I am in trouble.

I had AA and I raised. The jerk called with J 2 o and flopped 2 pair. Lucky for me when I bet he had only a few $ left and I called. He won.

There is a huge donk factor at that site, on those limits. Much more so then party or anywhere else. You can't lay it down, they really have no idea what they are doing.