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I don't even know what to call this

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I don't even know what to call this

Postby shobute » Sat Sep 17, 2005 2:32 pm

NL100 on Party.

I have [6h] [6d] in MP, two limpers to me and I limp, another limper and button makes it $6.
First two limpers call and I do too.

Flop [9s] [7s] [5h].
Check check and I lead $13 half pot, button minraises. Folds to me, I call.
I'm pretty sure he's on an overpair, he's agressive postflop but hardly ever raises preflop.

Turn [6c].
I bet $35 half pot and he puts me in for 50 more.
I call of course.

So: what does he have and did I make any mistakes?

I considered folding to the minraise but felt I could break him if I hit, and the odds felt about right.

Thank you...
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Postby Chris-bg » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:17 pm

Since he's the raiser you can't fold the turn, cause you can't put him on a hand that beats you. I wouldn't lead out on the flop with just 66 with 4 players on a gutshot. It would be much better if it was open ended.
The only reasonable hands for him that have some outs are AKs and TT and I can't imagine he raised 99 into so many limpers. Or he might be a cute guy 78s or 8Ts or something, but I doubt it. :)
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Postby Smokin'Al » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:36 pm

I think the flop is a marginal check-fold.

Before you bet: lots of limpers, who are going to check to the raiser whether they hit or not, and a pre-flop raiser you have pegged as tight.

After you're min-raised ... you're calling $13 to win $150(?) implied with 6 outs (9:1). But the 6 and 8 both put 4 to a straight on the board (and the [8s] and [6s] put a flush out), so I don't think there's any guarantee you'll get that much ... plus you're putting a lot of faith in your overpair read (99? 88? [As][Ks]? [As][Qs]?).

Interesting hand. You just-about/not-quite priced yourself in with the weak flop bet, not sure whether that's a good thing or not!
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Postby shobute » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:47 pm

Thanks for the replies...
He had.... 88!
I felt very naked after such a ghastly misread on my part.

My leading out was an odd play but I made it because of my read on the button.
If it was checked to him he'd bet full pot and I couldn't justify calling.
But if my read was right he would lose his stack to me, because he wouldn't believe I'd bet out with what I had (my table image was tight).
I wasn't too worried about the fishy limp-callers.

And when I say he doesn't raise much, in 2000 hands I have in my DB he's PFR'd 2.14% with a VPIP of 28.7%.
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Postby Chris-bg » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:53 pm

Well, he's obviously an idiot, but you gave him your money soo.. ;)
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Postby black_knight6 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:29 pm

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Postby kennyg » Sun Sep 18, 2005 1:16 am

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Postby shobute » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:37 pm

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Postby black_knight6 » Mon Sep 19, 2005 6:59 am

Don't forget that this guy is a very low pfr AND he raised hard with a number of limpers ahead of him...that screams overpair. His flop play also suggests that, though an aggressive person with AK spades could do that too...but this guy didn't play that way from what was seen in his past hands.
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Postby T-Rod » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:11 am

Shobute... I think the better question is why did you lead with 1/2 pot sized bet on the flop? You might do that with a made hand but you are still drawing.

1/2 pot is not going to rip the pot away from Mr. Preflop raiser which with a 6bb pfr I'd put on an overpair from the start, and it starts to get you pot committed or gives you odds to call min raises, etc.

I check/call the flop.


The way you played it, I lose my stack
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