Heres a hand from today that I dont like much. $1/$2 NL
UTG min raises to $4. He has a full stack as do I. Hes been splashing around in alot of pots but I havent seen his cards yet. Ive seen him do everything from bet, get raised and then lead the turn....to raise and bet and fold to a reraise...to get raised on the flop, call..and then check raise the turn. I have no idea what hes doing since I havent seen his cards but he is involved in alot of pots and staying about even. I have seen him raise preflop yet.

Ok, so he min raises. Im UTG +1 and I raise to $12 with [Ks]. Its folded back to him and he calls.

The pot is $27. The flop comes [Jh][4s]. He leads into me for $12. I called with the intention of raising the turn big. This was probably a mistake thinking about it afterwards.

Pot is $51. The turn is the . He bets something like $15-$20. I raised to $75. He then went all in. The pot is about $310 or so and its a little over $100 to me.

What do you do and what do you think he has?

I am not great at reads in general, and even worse when I'm not in the hand itself, but here goes nothing.

Since you've reraised convincingly preflop, he might have put you on KK or AA and he probably doesn't have these himself because he would have been likely to reraise unless he avoids defining his hands like this too much.

He might be scared of trip kings and wants to find out by leading out at you with that half pot bet (bold move and he will def. get information by how you react).

By just calling you may have made him think that that is not what you hold. And since he min-raised from UTG preflop, reminds me of a small-medium pair trying to force out two big and big-weak hands.

When the Q comes I think he's already decided you have AA or AK, not KK or QQ. There

Of course you'll tell me he had AT, but I think he has has a set but is worried about an overset. First guess JJ, second guess 44. But I lean heavily on the side of JJ.

I hate doing these because I hate being wrong Never mind.

I'd have raised on the flop and if he'd have called or raised me I'd have thought about folding on the turn. Where you are now, I'd fold. But I'm quite conservative.

That's a scary board to have your bet raised by a preflop reraiser. He doesn't seem to be scared, so you're probably beat. He could be dumb enough to semibluff with an A or TT, but I'm not sure I'd lay 3-1 on it.

Would be a much easier decision if the had fallen instead.

With what you observed of his play, his minimum raise to me would indicate some weakness. your reraise is telling him you have a hand that is strong, I think he had KQ suited, hit enough of it on the flop to keep him in the hand, hit his kicker on the turn and he is hoping to shut the hand down right there.

sonicboom

On Prima, this turn lead is a scary, scary thing. I see it often, and whenever it happens, I end up losing big. These people don't understand the concept of check and raise, and just lead when they hold a monster. You'd think it's actually an advanced play except they don't know what the hell they are doing. I've learned to fold in these spots, or at least slow down.

I think he has two pair or better and is kicking your ass. So very easy fold for me. At most you have 9 outs....that's 5-1 not 3-1. Def. lay this down.

I'd have a hard time calling this against a maniac or any other player for that matter.

I agree with you 100% Kenny. I called though and hated my call before I was done clicking the button. I hated it mostly because I had no idea what he had. You cant make a call like that without a very good read on what he has.

Luckily for me he is even dumber than me and he had K3. I shouldve layed it down because Im a good player, but did he really think the avg player would fold there?

He min raised preflop and I reraised pretty big. I called his flop bet and raised his turn bet big. Doesnt that look like I have AA, KK , QQ, or JJ to you? Thats a horrible spot for him to bluff.

Initially I thought he had to have JJ, but then looking at the preflop and flop action, JJ doesn't seem likely. First of all, people don't min-raise JJ often UTG. 90% of players will put in a bigger raise trying to thin the field, knowing that it doesn't play particularly well postflop, especially out of position. And the last 10% will probably just limp. Regardless, if his preflop play isn't an indicator enough, then I think his flop bet is. I don't think he'd lead into you with a set on a rainbow board. He either has you crushed (2-outer or worse, since you most likely have AA, KK, QQ, or AK), or he is drawing to a 1-outer. I can't really put him on a hand at this point - I guess it's conceivable to put him on AK too. Once the turn action developes, I think he has to have one of 2 hands, AK or KQ. Of course my read was completely off but given that he is as big of a moron as he is, I think all that matters is that you should put him at the top of your buddy list and make it your #1 priority to follow him around every night and sit with him.

Thats the thing. I was 80% sure I was ahead which is why I made the big turn raise. If he comes over the top I can fold. But then I didnt fold. It was dumb even though it worked.

I couldve avoided the whole thing my raising the flop I think.

Is there any way you can keep posting hand like this? Hearing about these chumps at the NL $200 game makes me want to build up my bankroll faster and faster.

It's defnitely fueling the fire.

K3? Sweet.

I agree with what Danhdan said. K3??? Good grief.

You sure this wasn't a $2 buy-in instead of $200 buy-in? Even at my micro-limits games, only about 1 player in 5 is this dumb.

Well, in my completely inexpert opinion, I have him pegged on TT or AQ. With QQ I think he would have bet differently on the preflop. With JJ I think he would have tried to push you off a bit harder on the flop since there was a straight opportunity for him. If he had the straight, he probably would have just called you on the turn and tried to milk you some more.

Your betting would convince me you didn't have the straight (from the betting on the turn) or a set (from the betting on the flop). So he's thinking he can scare you off the pot, and even if he doesn't he has some outs.

Then again... going all in on a K3... good lord. Wish I had that kinda money. Trying to figure out what an maniac would do by applying concrete EV and poker theory. The annoying thing is you can't count on them having crap either, because that one time you think you have him he ends up showing AT.