Sure looks like my opponent has the nuts on the flop. He plays loose preflop and tight postflop. I could not lay this down even though I thought i was most likely beaten. How do u play this? Did I overplay this set?


Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

BB ($131.85)
UTG ($189)
UTG+1 ($165.95)
Hero ($292.70)
MP2 ($302.40)
MP3 ($142.85)
CO ($241.90)
Button ($155.05)
SB ($136.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($10) , , (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $7, UTG+1 calls $7, Hero raises to $21, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to $37, Hero calls $16.

Turn: ($91) (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $75, Hero bets $75, UTG+1 bets $150.

River: ($316) (2 players)

Final Pot: $316

I'm gonna lose my stack set over set here (if that's what he had) every time... I'm raising the turn allin, crossin my fingers and hoping for the best...

Don't discount the loose player limping with [8h] and liking his nut straight w/flush draw which ends up being 2nd nuts to KJ (who could play KJ that way looking for runner runner???) Of course, he could also show you 10-6 and lose his stack with flopping 2 pair...

I don't think anyone would mini-re-raise me with a draw on the flop. They would either make a large bet or call. Therefore, it looks like a set or a straight. Maybe a loosely played 2 pair.

Hand Combinations:
2-pair: 3 (10,9) doubt he would play the other two 10,6 or 9,6
set: 6
straight: 16 (maybe a smaller estimate)

Ahead: 6
Behind: 19

I think this is a close call, but with 9 outs on the river. I'm thiking i should just have pushed the flop.

im going to guess he limped in with [Kh] and flopped a ton of outs for his hand, and hit one of them on the turn

The last time I saw this action, I lost set over set and I almost folded it, but couldnt do it.

My hand went like this.

2 limpers and I limp with 22. Flop 762.
Pot $40. EP bets $40, MP calls, I raise to $120, EP calls, now MP reraises to $340 or so.

He called the 1st bet, but when he saw I was serious AND EP called my raise he no longer wanted to wait and wanted to get all in. I was afraid of set over set but wanted to think he had 76. I pushed and he had 77. I shouldve folded.

Your hand is almost exactly the same but one MAJOR difference. You have middle set, not bottom set. IF its set over set, its 50/50 whether or not you have the winner. In my case if it was set over set, I was dead.

Since its 50/50 IF its set over set, and he could have alot of other hands including T9, or a big draw like a pair and draw or [Kh] or [6h] or any number of other hands (since hes loose preflop)....theres no way you can fold here. Just push on the flop when he reraises and hope for the best.

When he reraises to 37, I'm pushing all in.

If he has a set of 10s, he might even fold it. If he has the straight, well you're hosed like you've been all along. If he has a flush draw, you just made is extremely expensive for him. If he has 6s, you get his stack

TR

maybe i'm biased by the tone of the post, but i really think he has the straight here like 80% of the time. w/ the remainder split between TT and then various hands middle set beats. i mean, the dude calls a bet, then min-reraises. what hand does a reasonable player do that w/ besides 87 or TT.

i call his reraise and hope for the board to pair. there's no way i'm pushing the flop b/c i guarantee he's calling....except if by some chance he has T9 or T6, in which case i just gave him a chance to throw away a hopeless hand.

on the turn, his 3/4 pot bet is big enough to fold to...but i'm not saying i could do it. i'm just saying one can justify a fold at this point. on my $25-$50 tables, i am going to the felt w/ this probably everytime. but at slightly higher stakes, i'm willing to give him more credit, especially if he's tight post-flop.

also, why not just call his turn bet instead of pushing? i know it seems like a small detail, but since you're pretty sure you're behind, why not call and who knows, maybe something weird happens on the river like the hitting and scaring his TT and you save some $.

The guy shows 8h7c for the nut straight. I can see from the replies that it was at least a tough decision. However, I do think a mini-re-raise is a sign of the nuts.

I have another question now. If villan has a deeper stack when do u fold this hand? In this hand villan has 80x BB. What if he had 100xBB, 125xBB, 150xBB? Would this be a fold?

Hmmmm...

Well, as far as I'm concerned, UTG+1 is representing the straight here, which is the only hand I'm seriously worried about. TT does add something to the mix, and I've advocated laying down bottom set on occasion, but I can't advocate ever laying down middle set to a represented set. I suppose it just adds one more hand to the mix of possibilities that beat you here, and there are a lot on this board.

I also had a somewhat similar hand, which I won't go into (don't want to hijack). First, BB seems to have some piece of that flop, possibly 2 pair, and that takes away some of your outs. It seems a little weird to me that he lays down so easily on the flop, though. Maybe he was just stabbing at it with T3 or something (taking away only 1 out) or thought it looked like a BB flop and was expecting all to fold (taking away no outs).

If UTG+1 is pretty credible here, I think I do lay down on the turn. I would, however, have liked to raise bigger on the flop, maybe $40-$45. At that stage, UTG+1 is looking to me like a drawing hand. His re-raise changes things a lot, and I would like to know whether he'd re-raise you on the bigger bet. If he does have the straight, he really needs to move in there, and his turn behavior (assuming that's what he has) indicates to me that he probably would. TT actually needs to flat call imo, then check the turn, because of equal straight worries.

I'm really worried less about TT, though, also since it's an unraised pot. Most players seem to like to raise TT.

Anyhow, if this player is pretty good, and I haven't caught him overplaying hands much, I'd lay it down on the turn to a near-pot bet. That just looks to me like protecting a straight against a set (or 2 pair). T9 and 66 are the only hands he can possibly have that you can beat (imo). T9 is pretty unlikely given your holdings, and 66 makes very little sense to me. Surely to God he's not playing AT like that...