I've begun to play PLO25 on Party almost exclusively now, I can't imagine what kind of shape my hold 'em game is in at this point. While I don't consider myself an expert by any means, you basically only need a pulse to beat this game. Referring to the subject, this is one of the situations I hate most in omaha thus far, because it's only then a matter of how I'm gonna lose, and how much. Example: I hold KJQ9 no spades; flop A Q T with 2 spades. I bet the pot from the BB which is where I am, some guy raises pot which makes it 6.50 for me to call. This is where the expert opinion is needed; I figure most likely this guy has a JK too and wants to get me off a set or some crap 2 pair or something like that, but then the question is, does this guy have backup with his JK (spades) if he even has it at all. The result being, I raise the pot back at him putting me all in for approx. $30. Turn is a Q, river is irrelevant. He shows me TT22 with the T and 2 of spades. So my questions are 1.) Since I can't do math, does this guy have an advantage over me with a set and a flush draw to win by the river? 2.) How would you play this after his raise of my flop bet, calling seems weak especially if you intend to fold to any board pair, since his play looks like it could be a straight anyway and checking to him on a later street is certainly likely to induce a bet whether he has the straight or the full house. 3.) what if you call and a spade hits?

So much to learn.

-Justin

First off, there are two ways to play it IMO, especially when out of position. If you are up against the set and flush draw, he is 65% to win the hand if all his outs are live. You have one out of his so hes 60% instead. (figures from cardplayer) Therefore, you have to play cautiously


First, you could go for a check raise which will hopefully make it too expensive for any draws to continue. This assumes you are pretty much willing to push your whole stack for this hand. Against a bad opponent, not a terrible play but a high variance one.

Second, you could just check and call the flop if it doesn't get out of control. Its funny, in PLO, it can be correct to fold the nuts. If you check and there is a raise, reraise and another all in for normal stack, why call? At this point, it looks like you are looking to split 1 or 2 ways at best while some could be freerolling you and then if the board pairs, the boat is likely. If there is just a pot bet and a caller or two, then I would call and look for a safe turn card. If the turn pairs the board or completes the flush draw, I check and see the action. Its PLO25, if mutliple people are in this pot, someone has it. If its a safe card, you can decide to either bet our pot or check raise all in or even just call as someone could be playing it cautiously like you.

Overall, hands like this (mainly straights) have to be played cautiously because as showed but the numbers above, a big draw can be a huge favorite over a made hand, even the nuts. Straights are very vunerable and at these low levels, people chase 2 pair, sets and flush draws for their whole stacks.

In quick summary -

When you flop a straight with no redraws on a board showing a flush, you bet it and get raised, you really should fold if there's lots of money left to bet. I know you have the nuts but you're either up against the same straight (in which case you're not losing much by folding) or against the same straight plus a redraw (in which case 2/3 of the time you get your money back, the other 1/3 you lose your stack) or a set plus a flush draw (which is a BIG favourite over your hand - up to nearly 70%, depending on the dead cards). So you're at best neutral, at worst bigtime -EV to continue, and thus should generally fold before you get too committed.

Playing out of position in such a situation, you should consider checking and then making a bet/raise on a safe turn. Your alternative is to bet out, but getting into a raising war is suicidal. You got very lucky in this hand because you got your money in with much the worst of it. If you bet out and someone raises, unless they (or you) are a short stack and basically all in, you should consider bailing out.

If you ARE going to play for your stack (unless, again, you or the opponent are very short-stacked), you should always wait for the turn anyhow - if a flush card comes you may be able to bluff someone out who has the same straight which has been killed by the redraw.

Monk
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