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Cold called preflop with a pair: time to revise standards?

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Cold called preflop with a pair: time to revise standards?

Postby k3nt » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:04 am

Check your PokerTracker statistics and find out: what is your net winnings/losings when you cold call preflop with a pair?

Mine is actually negative (slightly) across all my hands. But I had three big losing hands: one set over set; one where I convinced myself that my TT was good even unimproved (very stupid); and one where my 33 caught the set and then boated up, but I lost to a straight flush (suited connectors that had also caught the small preflop raise). Taking those three hands out, I'm up significantly making these calls -- but not as much as I thought I would be.

I used to think of this as one of my favorite situations. I'm not sure anymore.

I think Ice is right: you have to be really careful not to call raises that are too big. It's partly stack size and implied odds, but I'm thinking of using a simpler metric, depending on the size of the preflop raise:

2x to 4x the BB: usually fine.
7x and above: usually bad
In-between: situation dependent

Yes, a big stack can give you implied odds even on a 10x raise. But you have to get their stack almost every time, and it just doesn't happen. A lot of the biggest raises are from QQ and JJ, which are fine taking down a pot right now and want to charge the maximum because they're scared of Axx and Kxx type flops. If I call with my 88, I won't get paid off if the flop comes A8x.
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Postby geewhiz » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:49 am

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Postby k3nt » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:56 am

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Postby geewhiz » Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:45 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 2:26 pm

You wont be stacking people at higher stakes (especially the regulars) all that often even if you hit a set against AA. It still happens but its rare.

The last time i did it, a guy raised to $25. 1 caller and then I call with TT in the BB. Notice Im only callng $15 with a pot thats already $65.

The flop was QTx. I check / called. Then I check raised the turn pretty big. Any good player wouldve folded right there especially since he only had KQ. He called and the river was a K so he called my all in.

This is the only time Ive stacked someone at $5/$10 when I called a raise with a pair. However, I have been able to push some of the good regulars off their hands by playing a hand like a set.
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Postby geewhiz » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:01 pm

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Postby AlexMR » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:34 pm

K3nt,

On my last 29K hands I am showing a 13.75PTBB/100 hands with mid small pockets (99-22) and that doesnt count a recent 215 pot I hit when I flopped top set with 77 :D .

Here in NL$25 I call with pockets regardless of position and to any raiser if he has more than 10 times the amount raised left. :shock: I dont call if I dont call WT or good TAGs raises. Except when they have a huge stack and there are more callers.

I think it s quite good. anyone playing only pockets and AK-AQ-AJ should be able to show a profit!!


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Postby rdale » Tue Aug 23, 2005 10:31 pm

I've often held the more solid the player, such as won't go broke with an over pair the deeper we both need to be and the more I like having position. Position means you can build the pot if he checks on the turn to something substantial. Out of position means you have to rely on leading getting raised and deciding whether or not to smooth call or make a big bet at the flop. It becomes far trickier and a majority of the time when you raise that is all there is going to be in that pot. Maybe a more passive line OOP is needed to realize the maximum value?

Against a tighter player that over plays one pair hands, which is something I take note of during the game, the stacks can be more shallow. This guy is going to get it all in on the flop against you 90% of the time.

Your average player, sets are gold in raised pots. If the average flaw of most players is calling too much, do you think they can get away from AA KK TPTK easily? It becomes ground and pound time as they curse their luck, when you bet the flop, smooth called a raise, and check raised all in on the turn.
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Postby k3nt » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:34 pm

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Postby Cardman » Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:47 pm

Lately I have been calling a single bet from any position with any pair, calling 2X-4X as well. Once it gets over the 4BB threshhold, I evaluate if my pair is lower and am not afraid to muck it thinking I am most likely down 80/20 and will only 'set up' 1 in 8.

I used to pitch low pairs from EP but no longer.
"Sometimes its all about making the wrong move at the right time"
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Postby AlamedaMike » Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:47 pm

I checked my cold calls with pairs in PT with only 3,000 hand at Full Tilt. Interesting.

AA (1), JJ (1), TT (1) and 77 (2) all won.

99 (2), 66 (2), and 22 (1) all lost.

I had 180 PP and cold called 14. Only one time did I cold call with AA (15 times).

I need to keep an eye on this - thanks
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Postby rdale » Wed Aug 24, 2005 2:01 pm

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