Hiaya,
Is it possible to ever be +EV on limp-calling low-mid pps in EP?

I think the conventional NL-wisdom for the caller vs opener claims that ”all pps are +EV given the big implicit odds” .
But is that so? Would that not be extremely player dependent?

I raised the question at a lesser forum (!) before, and only got answers on par with ”stupip f*ck, it’s always a great play – you’ll stack the sucker when u hit”. Yeah, thanks a lot for that (FTR).

Qualifications for situation:

You limp in with 88 in EP, folds down to MP2 who brings it in to 4*BB. Folds back to you, and you call.

Full stacks, both you and MP2 now have 96BBs left for the flop play.
The read on MP2 is: solid player who will open in that spot with 99/AQ/Ajs (36 pps, and 36 non-pps).

Basically, any flop will leave MP2 with about 27/72 (38%) A-high hands without flush draws. (I did the numbers). These could be forced to fold with a flop bet.


How could you proceed here to even get close to +EV?

Extremes:

1.
You bet half pot (or any amount) all the time, hoping for some folds when he misses (fold equity). With 1 fold in 3 you are even money for the post-flop play if you bet half-pot, though not counting your cost for calling preflop.

- Can’t work. MP2 might just always call you, and thus effectively just increase the size of your preflop call retroactively. You have only reduced your implicit odds.
Even worse, he’ll just stay with his top-whatever fraction determined by your bet size.
Very –EV.

2.
You only bet your trips. Well, when MP2 catches on he’ll just fold when you bet, or stay with better trips.
Very –EV.

3.
Game theory would dictate that you bet your value (trips), and semi-bluff a fraction determined by your bet size.
Bet pot – you give odds 1:2, so your semibluff ratio should be just that, 1:2.
But now you’ll check/fold something like 80% of the flops (MP2 will of course bet if you check)
Bet less than pot – you’ll play even fewer flops. MP2 will just pick the cherries with solid holdings and be happy about all the Check/folds you give him.

There are many variations, but I really don’t see how a limp-call ever can be +EV here.

It would be if MP2 is a fish who would give you his stack on all your sets, and you give him nothing on your non-sets..
It would also be a much better situation with extra callers in the pot.

Suggestions appreciated!
I have for now given up on ever limp-calling OOP in EP UNLESS the raiser is an ATM OR there is at least another caller already in, OR there are some limpers behind me yet to act (hopefully call or fold).

/rush

Most of the players dont know HOW TO FOLD AA-QQ as overpairs. That is why it is very read dependant to FOLD the PPs regardless of position. And that is in the NL$25 and $50 I have played at (various sites, they are all the same!)

Also, i dont think yuhave that fold equity right about a PF raiser with AQ-AK - 99. Think about it. You raised with AKs, and got nothing on the flop. you make your continuation bet and someone raises you to almost full size of the pot, are you calling?

I asked myself that and since the answer is no 99.9999% of times, I started doing it and I can tell you it is also very very EV+, juts if you dont do it against the calling station, of course.

I am showing a very decent profit in the last 40K hand in my low mid PPs. You might be in a rush of no sets or maybe not getting called when you hit. you will also get a set and the raiser will hit a higher set and he will stack you, but that wont happen very often (not even to me!). I would suggest you start playing them ALWAYS for a decent amount of hands (20K) and then share the results. Since you sound like a smart player who is familiar with game theory , I would suggest adding a few reraises in the flop (in case you are against a PFRaiser) regardless you hit or no.... you can make a nice strategy for that according to game theory, just remember you cant do it always or often, since thebest/observant players will notice it and hen will reraised you back.

Play them, so many good players here cant be wrong!! if you dont want to get fancy, just play them set them or fold them and I know you will show a profit in the long run. if you are playing the low stakes you wont be heads up many times against a good player (somebody you feel you wont stack if you hit) it is easy to get 8:1 on that PF call. Sometimes you will get 25:1 or more.


AlexMR.

Thanks Alex ,
I'll do that.

Clearly, to make any real money on the pps, they need to hit a flop for trips without scaring off the overpairs with any A-xy vs KK-JJ sets. All other fiddling will be for lesser pots. So I think that the bets aimed at using fold equity will be most useful to disguise the trip-bets. The semi-bluff like flop bets with unimproved pps will most likely be somewhat -EV, but be part of an overall +EV play.

THough I still would like to see what data is out there on the limp-call oop HU situation.

Will see what I can make of it myself.

Cheers,
rush