Yes, if you throw in gutshots, it's definitely more (I did count double gutshots), possibly as high as 25%, but that seems pretty big. If you count the flush draws and the open-enders, then you get up to 22% already. However, I'm a little skeptical about the flush draws here for playing aggressively due to AKs (or AQs). Admittedly, that's only one hand (or 2) among the entire raising range of most players.

Let me play through a few raising scenarios here (including one mentioned by MVP in another thread). While most players make a smaller continuation bet than I do, I do bet full pot, hit or miss, when I get 1 or 2 callers; with 3 callers or more, my hand has to look good on the flop.

So, let me start with just playing against me, and I'll assume someone calls my raise with some suited connector. My current raising range is AK and JJ-AA. Ok, if the flop comes K rags, I have AK 12 times, JJ/QQ 12 times, KK 3 times, and AA 6 times.

Let's just say the flop pot is $65, and I bet $65 into it (2 callers, including our suited connector). If someone plays back at me, regardless of holdings, I'm laying down 12 hands out of 33 immediately (JJ/QQ). 3 hands there's almost no way I'm going to lay down (KK--I say "almost" in light of suited flops, but I'll probably go ahead and try to boat anyway), and 18 hands I'm going to have to think about (AA and AK). I'll presumably call the first raise on the latter, but I'm certainly starting to think defensively (less so on AKs if I have the flush draw) and thinking about how my opponent has been playing. Basically, just under 1/3 of the time, I'm an easy laydown, and you don't even have to have anything to make me do it (JJ/QQ). The remainder of the time, it's at least going to cost quite a bit to bluff me off the hand, and position becomes relevant as well. So, this isn't really a good flop to take a stab against me.

Now, let's say same bet and the flop is Q rags. Now I'm an easy laydown 16 times (AK) plus another 6 on JJ. Absolutely no laydown on QQ (3 times). Tough laydown 12 times (AA and KK). So, now it's not hard to drag the pot 22 times out of 37--more than half the time. Hence, objectively, it's actually a good bet to minimum raise me on any 2 to $130 or else bet into me on every flop like that. 22 times out of 37 I'm going to lay down--even more than that if I'm in EP and am currently limping from there on AA and KK.

How about an A-rag flop? Ok, there again I have AK 12 times, AA 3 times, JJ-KK 18 times. So, again, it's a good flop for putting me to the test.

It should be fairly obvious that a J-rag flop is not good for bluffing into me. Interesting is that A-rag and Q-rag are both pretty good for a bluff against me. You can minimum raise me on those flops with any 2, and I'm gone (you do have to worry about the other player in the hand, however).

Now, on pure raggedy flops, if you have a suited connector, it's very likely that you've got some piece of it, and I definitely don't (hence I'm thinking also about some kind of randomized raising strategy, including some little pairs and some suited connectors--a little bit in the spirit of ice's raising strategy, but with some differences, and I don't think I really need to do this just yet). If you minimum raise me there (or bet into me), I obviously just lay down AK (16 times) but hold on to all the pairs (24 times). So, you get quite a bit of fold equity if you have some kind of draw--certainly enough on pair plus gutshot (giving 9 outs against my big pair).

I'll just say that there are quite a few flops where I'm vulnerable. The new discovery for me while posting this is that A-rag and Q-rag flops are pretty good here, largely since I rarely raise AQ--if you have an AQ raiser, this probably becomes quite different. Basically, there are more ace hands and more queen hands in the raising mix. Maybe that means that it's important to raise AQ if you have some opponents who are taking shots at you (?).

Well, I also wanted to discuss MVP's opponents, where AA slowplays but can't lay down. I'm guessing that's a case where suited connectors are pretty good but probably do need to be played passively (rather against my grain) on the draw. I'll save the discussion of that one for another time, though.

One other thought along these same lines: I think most of those who'll raise AQ will also raise 99.

So, let's count hands on an A-rag flop (rag <9): AK (12), AQ (12), AA (3), 99-KK (30). So, they SHOULD lay down 30 times and continue 27 times--a bit marginal, anyway. One also has to bear in mind the tendency of many NOT to lay down their big pair even against an overcard.

How about Q-rag? Laydowns: 99-JJ (12), AK (16). Continuation hands: AQ (12), QQ (3), AA/KK (12). Now we have 28 theoretical laydowns and 27 theoretical calls. So, this is pretty marginal.

K-rag: Laydowns: 99-QQ (24), AQ (16). Continuation on: AK (12), AA (6), KK (3). Here we have no less than 40 laydowns over and against 21 continuation hands.

So, against a player who will raise with continuation bet on AQ/AK and 99-AA, the K-rag flop is the one to attack.

Once again Ais you have written another great article that makes me question and improve my game.

If this is how to play against a TAG, then as a TAG how best do I defend against this type of play?

started a related thread on the merits of calling OOP with pps vs a credible raiser.

http://livepokerforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=5898

Hope we all will clarify these important issues. I think way too many players just skim the surface of strategic considerations and go on making misguided plays thinking these "obvious plays" are really good (+EV).

cheers,
rush

Nice post Aisthesis, but we need someone to edit down your posts so I don't get scared by the length .

If you think tight players will fold that much on these flops, then it might be worth betting into them often half-pot or so. You only need to win 1 in 3 to break even, so this might be a good strategy.

I have seen some players do this, and fairly often I see them with big stacks. They call raises often, bet out into the raiser. Who knows, it might work...

I tried this last night. I got , in MP and limped. CO raised 4xBB. I don't have PT w/ me right now but he was somewhere around 15%/4.00%/1.5. Folds back to me and I call. Only me and villian to the flop.

Flop comes A,rag,rag - good time to experiment. I BTP and he flat calls - whoops. Turn check/check. River - check/check he shows QQ and takes it.

So on my first test of this I find a closet calling station. I'm not going to let this stop me though I will continue to try this out and posts my results.(hopefully w/ PT stats next time)

On a good note though I was able to stack this player later knowing he had trouble laying down big hole cards.

I played like a rock the next 30 minutes and catch , . I limp same villian raises 4xBB. SB calls folds to me and I flat call (was less than 5% of anybodys stack by the way). 3 to the flop. Flop comes Q,8,rag rainbow. Same situation as before so SB BTP I call, villian calls. Turn is a K to complete rainbow SB checks, I check, Villian BTP. SB calls, I push (over 1 buy-in). Villian calls, SB calls (all-in). River is brick.

SB - J8
Villian - KQ
Hero triples up

Nice play on the 88
I'm not sure I could have pushed when you did. After the K fell giving the board a K and a Q I'd be a little worried that at least one of them had KK or QQ to call a x4BB pfr. Of course, that's worrying about set over set which is pretty much outlawed here I think!
TR

That's really my main concern out of position--these guys who can't let go of their pair to overcards, an extremely common mistake.

I really think the place to start on cracking raisers is to look for the weak ones (weak or non-existent continuation bet) and try to get a tell on them. I've really just been playing my own cards way too long, and, if you play them right, it still works pretty well, but I think you can get more out of these folks.