The level of analytical ability of the BTPrs never seems to impress me.

Nice

thread guys - I think (which might be unfounded) that I am more unlucky than lucky. I went so far as to post a few hands where I had very bad luck - I was not complaining about Bad Beats - I take them as well as anyone, but I just think if I were to analyze all my 10,000 hands at Party Poker I think it would defy the odds.

But, this is a small sample and we all believe, true or not, that we have about the same luck as everyone else.

Chris F said on an interview that on any give hand in Hold'em it might be 99% luck but long term it is skill that prevails.

It would be great if poker tracker provided a bad beat indicator. Where you were favorite and lost the hand. Then we all could compare easily how lucky we were or not.

BTW - this is not bad luck - it is just plain stupid (the bad luck is the Ace on the river).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed)

Hero ($99.3)
UTG ($99.1)
UTG+1 ($123.68)
UTG+2 ($105.1)
MP1 ($137.55)
MP2 ($92)
MP3 ($100.9)
CO ($122.8)
Button ($99)
SB ($98.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , . SB posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, 4 folds, Button calls $1, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3.50) , , (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($3.50) (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, Button bets $2, Hero calls $2, UTG+2 folds.

River: ($7.50) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button calls $96 (All-In), Hero calls $96.

Final Pot: $199.50
Main Pot: $199.50, between Hero and Button. > Pot won by Button ($199.50).

Results in white below:
Hero has 9c Ad (three of a kind, aces).
Button has 8s 8c (full house, eights full of aces).
Outcome: Button wins $199.50.

twelver,

I don't have the results of my study handy, as they were written on a series of airplane napkins that have since been discarded.

What's important, IMO, is that I did the exercise myself, worked through the numbers, and got it into my brain in a way that I never could have just by reading a forum or a book. I think that Alex's idea is similar: do extra work that's not just reading, and thereby get more of your brain involved in different ways. The result is likely to be something that will stick with him for a long time.

Hmm.. if you split your losses into suckouts/misplay surely the (unattainable) ideal is 100% suckouts / 0% misplay? Would this mean that player is unluckier than average? No, it just means he is better ...

The better the player you are the more you will suffer suckouts (as only those who get their money in with the best of it get sucked out on).

Another issue if that you really need to split your losses into bad play/ suckouts and 'shit happens'.

If you push on a coinflip with a fair bit of money already in the pot and lose neither your opponent nor you have played badly.

Last night I got stacked when my QQ hit top set on flop on 2 flush board in LP. EP bets 1/2 pot, MP calls and I push and get 2 callers. Once guy had a set of 10's and other was on flush draw. The flush draw got home and board didn't pair - bye bye stack - two hands later I get KK and lose 50% of my new stack to a short-stacker with AA.

These aren't really hands that I feel anyone misplayed - they are just 'shit happens' hands.

I totally agree with you, excession. I do have a "Shit happens" category, it s just that I am not taking notes of those. Remember I said " I didnt count the KK vs AA". They cost me three stacks but, what could you do about it? I have been pushing alot preflop with those hands and get called with QQ, AK, JJ, TT. they have been my moneymakes lately, so you vcant complain when they are cracked or when your KK meets AA.... that sucks though.


K3nt, you hit it! That is the whole intention of the exercise!


I m glad most of you have found the post interesting.

AlexMR.

K3nt,

I totally agrre that doing the exercise on my own would certainly help me in the long run. The problem is where to start? You said that you "worked out all the odds of chasing flush draws so I would know when to do it and when not to".

O.K. where do I begin. obviously if you have 4 to a flush after the flop then you have a 19% chance of hitting the flush on the turn and a 20% chance of hitting on the river. So youhave what a 39% chance of hitting a flush with 4 to it on the flop right? That being said if you are not getting 3-1 on your money should you not chase? As you only have a 1 in 3 chance (actuallly a little higher) of hitting your flush on any given street. This of course does not take into account implied odds.