1/2
I really thought this guy had something like TT-KK with a heart and cannot call this river bet. What do you think?

Opponent is a decent, winning player.


I limp UTG with [7c]. UTG+2 raises it to $14. I'm the only caller. I have $170..he has me covered.

FLOP $31
[4h][8c]

I bet $25. He calls.

TURN $81
[4h][8c][Ah]

I bet $50. He calls.

RIVER $181
[4h][8c][Ah][Qs]

I bet my last $81.

Results later.


Thoughts??

I guess this is why you're one of the better 1/2 NL players. I don't think I could make that kind of a move with 77.

It looks like he has AA-TT (I'm not sure. He's preflop raise and his flop call confuses me a little. JJ?).
KK, JJ and TT (with a heart): 9 combos. AA, QQ (QQ with a heart): 5 combos.

If that is his only possible holdings and he always fold KK, JJ and TT, he will call 36% of the time and fold 64% of the time.

For your river bluff to be +EV he just has to fold 31% of the time. Looks good.

But he is getting 3.2-1 on his call. He has to be very sure that he is beat to fold with those odds.

Bleh. FOLD PREFLOP

kalle, never fold pp preflop! imagine if he had hit a 7 against AA/KK? the implied odds are too good

anyways, the opponent looks kind of scared here, i think he may have JJ or QQ but not KK or AA. the reason is because you priced yourself to draw here and a person holding KK or AA is not going let you draw if they know whats going on. if he's holding JJ or QQ he looks like he went along for the ride fearing KK and AA.

if he's halfway decent he may talk himself into calling you, but if he's weak he's folding in a heartbeat. if you think opponent is decent i think this is -ev

Believe it or not, I fold preflop also.

I used to call this every time, but I now want a higher "raise amount to stack" ratio. There are just too many times that you flop the set and dont stack him because
1) He is good and doesnt get stacked easily
2) He has AK and the flop is T73 (not stacking him)
3) He has AA and the flop is QQ7 (not stacking him)
4) Flop is A73 and you hate life.

Also, I dont see any reason to make a play like this. You could do this same thing when you had 98s and he would call you down with KK.

Johnny, if folding 77 pre flop is a bad idea because of the set potential, why would you fold it only if the opponent were tight and only raised big pairs pre flop. Isn't that the exact situation you hope for when calling a raise with 77?

Molina

Ice....one thing i disagree with is that the raiser in this situation might have AK. unless he's got a massive stack....is he raising 7xbb with AK? i would say AA-QQ. 2 of those will call you quite easily.

jon

I raise to 7BBs with AK all the time. I raised to 7BBs with KQs last night.