Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (8 handed)

UTG+1 ($29.20)
MP2 ($51.80)
CO ($28.90)
SB ($53.90)
Hero ($49.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) , , (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, SB calls $3, BB folds.

Turn: ($15.50) (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13, MP2 calls $13, CO folds, SB folds.

River: ($41.50) (2 players)
Hero?

i have $33.45 left, opp has me covered. no notes on opp in a few orbits, so could be solid. i hollywooded the turn bet a bit, so i could check here and try to look weak. if he bets, obviously it lets me get all-in. but that's risky. should i value bet instead?

and (for the time being) whenever i get mad at the poker gods, i shall remember this hand for the beautifully harmless turn and river cards.

I say push. It's very likely that he's got an Ace but is worried about his kicker or something simmilarly weak, in which case he will check behind. Any hand that he wil bet that river with will call the all-in so there's no need to get fancy and go for a check-raise. If you're beat he's going to put you all-in and you'll have to call anyway. I can only see upsides with pushing here. Considering your heavy betting I very much doubt he will bluff with a busted draw so there's no benefit to checking.

Going all in has the added advantage of people feel all pushed around and are likely to call your next all-in.

Also, you might get AK to call.

if opponent has AK he is definitely all-in unless he's a weak tight fish. the river check depends on how alert the opponent is, if he is just a fish he's gonna get scared and check right along (weak ace or draw). from the hand, i think theres a better chance that opponent has a busted draw, in which case i like to bet a tiny amount to make em look ridiculous if they fold. if you bet $2 dollars into this $41 pot he'll have a hard time folding and may raise it instead.

i think the key thing is i didn't have any muppet read. during the hand, i didn't seriously consider going all-in. imo he would have to have a big hand to cold call three big bets all the way down. in my head, i considered it about an even proposition b/w value betting ~$15 or checking. i get a lot of satisfaction out of c/r'ing in this spot, so i went for it and checked. i mean, it's gotta look super weak.

looking at the hand now, I would put mp2 overwhelmingly on w/ a (broadway) diamond kicker; then some other flush draw; and only then aces up (discounted b/c he didn't raise). it is definitely optimal to check to the busted flush draw and two pair; however, x it's not so clear...he's probably calling a value bet, but is he going to bet the river w/ [Qd] or [Jd]...maybe, maybe not. but i still lean toward checking here b/c in the bottom two cases, checking is clearly best.

really though, i've thought about this a ton, and i don't think there's too much difference b/w the ev of checking, value betting, and pushing.

anyway, so after i checked, he thought for a bit and then fired $20. nice. i went all-in, and he called quickly with [Ks].

yeah you were getting his stack no matter what you did there. I would have pushed if i were your opponent.