Villan over a small sample 100 hands or so is semi loose VPIP 27% and PFR of 10%. How would you play this hand if you were in my shoes? What does Villan have?


Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed)

SB ($166.65)
BB ($218.45)
UTG ($155.15)
UTG+1 ($61.65)
UTG+2 ($206.65)
MP1 ($156.95)
MP2 ($171.25)
MP3 ($61.05)
Hero ($310.25)
Button ($197)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, UTG+2 raises to $6, 3 folds, Hero raises to $23, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $17.

Flop: ($51) , , (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $51, UTG+2 calls $51.

Turn: ($153) (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $132.65 (All-In), Hero calls $132.65.

River: ($418.30) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $418.30

i would fold the turn, this is how the flush is played 8 outta 10 times

I call it. There's a good chance he has something like Q[Ks],J[Ks] A[Ks].

I'd be more worried about QQ then the flush though.

oops i missed the 23 dollar preflop fee. he is fairly loose, he may have entered with a suited connector, but im definitely more worried about a set

Tough situation. He could have a lot of hands since he's a bit loose. I guess even 33 isn't out of the question, but I doubt he'd play a suited connector this way. He may be overplaying his AKs.Against such a player I'd probably call - the bet isn't that big compared to the size of the pot anyway. But folding isn't bad here either since you can only hope for KK or a pure bluff. But since the villain is so loose he'd probably do it ith AQ too...

Yeah I'd just like to add that this is a high varience play....

I don't think folding or calling are bad either way. I like both plays for different reasons. Sometimes they're just no right answer?

Just a question to think about, mecha.

Under what sort of betting pattern WILL you fold your aces? If this one doesn't scream "you're way behind," I don't know what would.

Either you're up against a total muppet -- but most muppets don't bet huge with just one pair, they check/call down.

Or you're up against a total bluff -- say 10% chance of that.

Otherwise, you have 2 outs or 7 outs. Say 50/50 chance of him having the set or the flush.

So:

Say 10% of the time you win (90%) because you're against a bluff: 10% * 90% = 9%
Say 2% of the time you win (90%) because you're against a muppet playing unusually: 2% * 90% = 1.8%
Say 44% of the time you have 2 outs and win just 4% of those -- 4% * 44% = 1.76%
Say 44% of the time you have 7 outs and win 14% of those -- 44% * 14% = 6.16%

Total, you win 9% + 1.8% + 1.76% + 6.16% = less than 19% of the time. The pot is laying less than 2:1 after his full pot bet on the turn. MUCK MUCK MUCK.

You won't have time to do this calculation every time. Just remember: you need to fold your aces to a check/call followed by an all-in when the turn brings the flush. There are other betting patterns showing similar strength. Mentally prepare yourself to fold your aces when you see those patterns.

(BTW, this post is written to myself as much as to you. Hence the urgent tone and the slightly obnoxious language. I have told myself FOLD THIS OVERPAIR YOU DUMMY so often -- but usually too late.)

I guess if he has the set you do have more outs. Maybe the math is a little less one-sided. But I'm pretty sure this is still a clear fold, even with the .

Darn, and I thought he was talking about me.

Great post Kent I have never broken it down that way before. I think that helps those of us who cant bear to lay down AA/KK when our opponent show this type of pattern..