Too aggressive with Aces again??

I've been playing Aces too aggressively in the face of aggression coming back, I think. Here's another example.

Table history: The last couple hands I've played, I've gotten smoked. Had the best hand on the flop and bet the pot. Turn and river brought too much scariness, and opponent's betting kicked into high gear. So I've folded a few recent hands to aggression on the Turn and River recently.

Phish sittin' on $23
CO sittin' on $28

PT stats on CO: 43 hands, VP$IP 37.21, WSD 16%, W$SD 33.33, Post-FA 3.33, Rated sLP A by Excession's ratings.

Phish in BB with [Ad]

UTG call, 3 folds, MP3 call, CO calls, Button raises to .50, SB folds, Phish raises to 2.00, Folds to CO who calls, button folds.

Flop ($5.10) [3h][9s]

Phish bets 4.00, CO raise to 8.00 (huh?), Phish calls (Should I have pushed in here? WIth all the bad beats these last few sessions, I don't like my odds of him drawing to his flush with 2 to come or having a set. I can't fold this to a min raise on Party NL $25 though, not to this guy.)

Turn (21.10)

(Ick. Paired board after raising my pot-sized bet on the flop. TIme to lose some money!) Phish pushes in for 13.50, CO calls.

River (48.10)

DId I win?


Edit: Better question, was that play +EV? I don't care if I win or not on any given play; just that I make the right decisions.

I got bad beat nearly to death tonight and, while I think they sucked, they didn't throw me off my game and I'm not upset by them at all. I made the right decisions on all of 'em (easy to know when you get to showdown) and Variance took it from there.

My read on this guy, PT aside, was that he liked to play aggressvely after the flop. He just saw me fold a couple hands to aggression, which would tend to incent him to play back at me all the more. I figured it likely he had a flush draw or TP when he bet back at me. He could even have been on a bluff. I expected he'd have pushed in with a flopped set or 2 pair (I'd have folded to an all-in raise).

theres not much room to make a different play here given the bet sizes, the 3 on the end helps you if anything, if he caught a weird 2 pair you win. theres a range of hands he could have with the flop raise, a draw, an over pair- or he's just trying to scare you off your missed flop. pushing is correct i think (i'll guess villain has a busted flush draw)

nice and elaborate post btw

I wouldn't wait till the turn here because he could have a lot of different hands and you don't know what to avoid. Just push it in on the flop.

His mini raise preflop might be a small pocket pair like 6's...but he also might have something like A9, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA.

I think it's a +EV play..especially against the players at .25NL

CO didn't raise pre-flop; Button did, but then folded to my 2.00 re-raise.

kenny is right. There is a large range of hands he will call with and only a few beat you. +EV all the way.

If you think you're up against a flush draw here, you played it perfectly. That's what I learned from TUP. Don't push the flop against the flush draw, because you're only 65/35 to win. Push the turn (assuming the flush didn't come on the turn) because you're more than 80/20 to win.

Definitely get a note on this guy that he can minraise a flush draw!!!