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S.F. Draw 10/20 PS

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S.F. Draw 10/20 PS

Postby Mad Genius » Sat Aug 06, 2005 3:15 pm

HH Converter is being annoying so I'm gonna post this one myself. Game is 5-handed I sat down only 5minutes ago so no read. CO opens for $60, I call in the BB with [6s][4s]. We both have $2000.

Pot $130.

Flop [Qs][7s][5h]

I check he bets $100. I raise to $300. He minreraises to $500. Do you call here or go all-in? Keep in mind the game is short-handed and neither of you have a table image yet.
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Aug 06, 2005 3:19 pm

I call. Hes not going to fold to a push and you need folding equity to go with your big draw or else you might as well flip as coin for $2K.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Aug 06, 2005 3:47 pm

Does this mean you think he has a set? I can't conceivably see a reasonable player calling an allin with one pair here...not to mention if called I am a fairly healthy favorite. And two pair should be out of the question for him. It sure would be an odd way to play a set.
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Postby rdale » Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:21 pm

I would have smooth called the flop and tried to maintain the pot, I doubt he is going to get moved off a set or overpair if you hit your straight. Playing it the way you did, is great if you had him solidily on TT, AK or AJ, but otherwise it just builds a pot that might be too massive to play the turn.

I play "drawing favorites" softer than some, especially in raised pots, I want to see the next two cards but I don't want to do it for my stack until I have a made hand, unless I'm getting really good overlay. I think there has to be another $500 of deadmoney in the pot to really consider it good enough overlay. Things that sway me from a smooth call to push now is half stacked or less opponents. Unraised pots the check raise would be great for building up the pot so that there is something good to fire at when you do hit, raised pots already have this built in.

Favored draw is still a draw, to a made hand. I did a lot of thinking about these type of hands on my day off this week, as I come up short with 15 outs more than I should, and needed to readjust my thinking.

We don't know if your guy is unable to lay down KK AA AQ or even JJ to an all in which he is attempting to represent, especially after he re-raises a check raise, which would indicate AA KK QQ or 77 (sevens are added as he open raised the CO and he might think you have AQ KK AA), all of which might be hard to move him off.

The all in on a massive draw in my eyes is a move made to take down this pot right now, you really don't want a call. When I want or are indifferent to a call it is to get all the money of a shorter player in now before he can change his mind later and to appear like a crazy gambler to anyone bothering to watch.

I prefer a more passive line with full stacks or more, but can see arguments for a more aggressive approach, and advocate a more aggressive play in other situations.

I'm also working on my first cup of coffee.... feel free to set my thinking straight if it is broke.
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:24 pm

Ive tried that move several times against someone who min raised my lead and they havent fold yet. He most likely has AA, KK, or QQ and isnt folding. Youre a small fav to AA / KK, but knowing he isnt folding, do you really want to flip a coin for your stack?

If you thought you had 30-50% folding equity, the all in would be perfect.
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Postby kennyg » Sat Aug 06, 2005 5:50 pm

Yeah I was gonna say the same thing as the guys...I really think he has a set the way he played this hand. Just smooth call.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Aug 06, 2005 6:02 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Aug 06, 2005 6:16 pm

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Postby Mad Genius » Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:04 pm

Fair enough. You do agree though that if he DOESN'T have a set (and we can assume he MOST likely doesn't have 2pr), then he will have an extremely hard time calling me right?
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Postby rdale » Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:28 pm

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Postby iceman5 » Sat Aug 06, 2005 7:34 pm

No, I think if he has AA, KK OR a set, hes calling you based on how hes played it so far.
As a matter of fact, if he has [As][Ks] I think hes calling you as well. He could also have some tricky little hand like [9s][8s] that he might get frisky with.

The point is that he bet the flop, got raised and then reraised you the min. He wants to play a big pot and I think hes calling an all in here.

Results please?
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Postby Rhound50 » Sat Aug 06, 2005 9:32 pm

MG. the fact that he min raised you back is a key here. The only reason he min raises is that thinks he has the best hand, this is a milking raise. He is making the min raise because he doesnt want you to fold, which means he has it in his head that he has you beat. Just call the reraise and if you hit on the turn there is no way he is going to put you on this draw if it hits is very hidden and there is a good chance you stack him.
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Postby Chris-bg » Sun Aug 07, 2005 12:50 am

There is no knowledge that is not power.
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Postby Mad Genius » Sun Aug 07, 2005 12:52 am

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Postby kennyg » Sun Aug 07, 2005 1:09 am

just not something like [As][Ks]. That would be -EV hardcore.


Sure we may play a little weak-tight and you might not like it MG.... but everything this guy has done is signaling monster. Ice and I like to play a low varience game if we can.

That being said, I've changed my mind...I think pushing is the correct play. There's already a bunch of money in. If you call and hit...it's likey he'll slowdown. If you call and miss...you're in a real crappy position for the rest of the hand.

Pushing gives you the slight edge of folding equity here...Even if he has AA or KK he very well may fold. If he does have AA...even if he has the [As]... I think you actually have the better hand on the flop?? yeah i just checked... you have 51.5% to [As][A] 48.5%. If he doesn't hold a spade that number increases by about 8 percent.

If he has a set...the pot is already pretty big and you have a damn good number of outs.

Just looked up some more numbers... even if he has a set he only has a 20% advantage of 60/40.

Yeah you need to push here. The only thing that was be horrible would be a higher flush draw. But you need to have a little gamble in you to be a winner :)
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