Well guys and gals,

Can I lay down a set of 4's? I do not think that I am a strong enough player to fold here.

What would you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

MP3 ($193.85)
CO ($192)
Hero ($188.75)
SB ($76.25)
BB ($228.35)
UTG ($229.15)
UTG+1 ($49.25)
MP1 ($687.55)
MP2 ($223.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , . CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls $2, SB completes, BB raises to $4, UTG calls $2, MP2 calls $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB calls $2.

Flop: ($25) , , (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2, UTG calls $2, MP2 raises to $10, CO folds, Hero raises to $74, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 raises to $219.8

I have 110.75 left. What to do. 37% chance to win with a FH if he has a straight already.

You are getting about 2.5:1 on a call that over two cards you are about 3:1 dog IF you are behind, and 4:1 or far greater WHEN you are ahead. 3:2 being the worse case ahead scenario when "ahead" to a straight flush draw and a monster to everything else. I'm pretty sure on every thing except the direct pot odds because I'm using monkey memory math of the pot and stack sizes.

I don't fold here, he is going to have to show me the straight or fives and make it stick if he is ahead, and suck out if he is behind.

I think you will often enough see a pair like 66 going ape here and depending on the quality of your opponents a far worse hand. It would take a mighty nut peddling opponent for me to consider folding and I wouldn't have gone so ape against that guy as to commit myself until the turn.

I call. My guess he is on a flush draw and maybe an open ended straight draw. maybe? I think you are ahead as of right not. And even if you are trailing to the straight you have outs.

-twelver

I would call the flop raise instead of reraising.

I would fold to the all-in.

Well, as it turned out Bensberg would have saved money. But, he needed to show me the better hand, and he did.

He flopped the ignorant end of the straight with . Here discretion is the better part of valor.

As I said to Iceman, I think that folding is the most valuable skill in poker, and it is my weakest area.

I sometimes fold the winner but her I should have called and then folded to his all-in. That way I lose $14.

Now, what if we were to play this hand about 100 times? Most of the time he would have missed is straight and raised with something that I could beat and he would most likely fold to my reraise.

I guess the best way to look at it is don't put all you money in the middle unless you figure to be the favorite. Does the all-in from him mean that he has the straight already? not necessarily.

Therefore, it comes back to judgement. Blow off the $14 or $78 and live to fight another day or go with the odds. The odds are that he did not flop the straight.

Iceman posted a hand where there was a possible straight on the board and he held QQ. He pushed the other player off the hand. How many times will you be re-raised when your opponent does not have the nuts? Should you fold every one?

Bottom line is that I am not sure long term what the best move is here. On this hand I was badly beat and needed a full house to win (which was my initial read).

I would guess that the long term move would be to calculate the pots odds to get a FH and if not there just fold'em. That is how I play my draws.

Thanks for the feedback guys.

Make sure you put a note on that gut that he will play any Ax

-twelver

i think the last bet is a pretty easy call. basically i am going to echo what rdale said: you are likely behind, but you are pot-committed. you already have the express odds (~30%) to call against a straight. you're only really worried about 55, and the important thing is, against any other hands you are a huge to nice favorite.

this reminds me of a hand i had (at ub $25): i had 99 and flopped 569. a blind bet pot, i raised big, a lp player reraised. i thought, would could he have here but the straight? i very nearly folded(?), but decided to call him down using a similar rationale as above (i actually didn't quite have the right odds to call against a straight). and he had 56. i still think like 4/5 times he has the straight here, but i happened to find the 5th time, and that's why i called (ok, i had top set also, that helps).

FWIW, I think $74 is too much on the flop. What's wrong with $30-$40? Shows definite strength but doesn't cost so much. If he is all-in over that bet, it's an easier fold.