I saw a post on another forum talking about standard deviation. Alot of guys posted their SD's and mine was VERY low in comparison.

Now if you read fimbulwinters post in my staking proposal thread, he thinks I have "only rudimentary knowledge" of NL poker. Ive posted quite a few hands on the other forum over the past few months only because they have ALOT of high stakes players and I wanted the opinions of some of those guys since we have mostly lower and middle stakes players here.

Those guys seem to think Im very weak tight by reading my posts. In my opinion they push way too many hands way to hard which may or may not increase your win rate, but it definately raises your SD (variance). I hate high variance with a passion. Now, I will shove all my chips in the pot when need be, but I dont like high varaince.

I say all of that to say this.........

My long term win rate at $200NL is almost exactly 16BB / 100 hands (8 PTBBs). This is pretty damned good and I can count the players in my database with rates that high on one hand ( Im counting regulars with a reasonable amount of hands). My so called "weak tight" self has managed to sustain that win rate with a SD of 27.42 BB/ 100 hands. The guys on the other forum who listed their SDs were mostly around 50 and higher.

So with my rudimentary knowledge Ive somehow stumbled blindly into a damned good sustained win rate and very low variance style of play. Must be luck.

My win rate in the $1000NL project so far is 12.6 BB / 100 hands with a SD of 22.1 BB / 100 hands. So much for the swings being much higher at these stakes. Obviously my sample size for the $1000s is very small, but Im playing the exact same style and it is working remarkably well.

Feel free to post your win rates and SDs for comparison. Im off to examine the SDs of the few players with higher win rates than mine.

For 1/2 on party and prima:

Win rate
11.89 PTBB/100

SD
38.58BB/100

my 2/4 rates sucks though. which is why i'm dropping back down this month.

on another note...

Players on the aforementioned forum aren't nearly as good as they think they are. I wouldn't worry about their opinions. In the end, the only thing that matters is money.

Well embarassingly I haven't kept up with my poker records since February and the records of the month leading up to it are sketchy. Your so-called "weak-tight" play has been an extremely solid guide to follow and think about when I'm playing through each poker session that I get to when I have time (which isn't much lately). From reading, as a player relatively new to NLH, about the old "15 times your call" rule for when to chase a preflop raise with a pocket pair looking for a set to the newer "min raise = monster" your experiences and insights have been invaluable to advancing my game and I guarantee a good number of others on this site. You make solid reads and act on what your notes, PT stats, and insticts are telling you. If you step lightly in the marginal situations that these other players apparently entangle themselves in more power to you.

Not a massive sample, only 4k of hands but here goes...

All at $50NL

SD/100: 29.53 PTBB

Win rate: 4.04 PTBB/100

My win rate isn't the greatest but at least its a win rate. I am still flexing and making mistakes but trying to learn from them. I just need to put in the hours now and see what happens.

I think my SD is low as I have quite a flop based game. I tend to raise a lot with position and play position as much as my cards sometimes winning a lot on the flop. This means I tend not to tangle too much waiting for my bigger hands to really mess with people.

Rich

13K hands from 400 and 600NL

Win rate/100: 9.47 PTBB

SD/100: 26.9 PTBB

Ice,

You can show results. I am glad your style of play can show such a high profit at the stakes you play in. I like your style and since the beginning I have been following your advice. I have been incorporating things at times to my game. My latest adjustment was: "Pick your spots and dont make the pot huge in "conflictive" situations". I have heard you saying that and I can tell you now, that I think my game is at another level.

This are my numbers for the last 7.8K hands at NL$25:

Win rate: 16.78PTBB/100
SD: 26.89PTBB/100

I think my SD is too high for the style I am playing. I dont know why because lately I have been consistently winning. I am also winning 63% of my sessions which I think is very high, isnt it?

I am playing a lot. I want to get to 20K hands to see if this is consistent so I can move on.

AlexMR.

Kalle...thats outstanding..Good Job!!

Alex...unless youve been taking money out of your roll, my calculations show you have more than enough to move to $50NL. With that win rate, I would make the move now. At least 8 buy ins and move up. If you lose 8 buy ins, move back down. Theres no skill difference in $25NL and $50NL.

well for what its worth. At prima, the first 9000 NL hands ever played on the same level and site. (0.50$)

PTBB/ 100: 8.20
SD/100 : 40.2 <---

Ice,

I have been taking money out of my roll but I do have enough for NL$50 or even NL$100 ($2180). I am just coward and since I am doing so nice at NL$25 I wanted to make some more money here . I was considering moving up to NL$100 the next week. What do you say about that? You know I was in a very crazy losing streak and I managed to lose 11buyins or 12, but thats not near the 22buy ins I have to play NL$100.

Do you think thats a bad idea, to jump NL50 and play NL$100? Is the skill level noticeable at NL$100? I played some NL50 and it was just the same with more money... I also beat some poor guys with KK against AA for a 162pot .

AlexMR.

Alex,

I agree with Ice's last comment about not being used to the betting levels.

It's like dating a supermodel... the dates get real expensive compared to what you're used to!

TR

I played over 10k hands at 2/4 and im still not accustomed to the huge river calls and bets. My bankroll may be affecting me on this though. Another reason I'm moving back down for a while.