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Stupid to push this draw

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Stupid to push this draw

Postby briachek » Sat Jul 30, 2005 8:54 pm

Another bad night. Should I have pushed this draw or just called the flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed)

BB ($157.18)
UTG ($57.25)
UTG+1 ($75)
MP1 ($239)
MP2 ($96.20)
MP3 ($115.05)
Hero ($117.40)
Button ($125.20)
SB ($155.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with [8c], [7c]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 3 folds.

Flop: ($10.50) [8h], [9c], [6c] (3 players)
UTG bets $8, MP2 raises to $16, Hero raises to $60, UTG folds, MP2 calls $77.20 (All-In), Hero calls $33.20.

Turn: ($204.90) [Qh] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($204.90) [Ad] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $204.90

Results in white below:
MP2 has 6h 6d (three of a kind, sixes).
Hero has 8c 7c (one pair, eights).
Outcome: MP2 wins $204.90.
Brian [Js][9s]
Anyone who gets in a fair fight, has no tactical skills.
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Postby iceman5 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:19 pm

When the guy min raises the flop, he almost always has a set. Since the positive EVof pushing a big draw has a lot to do with your folding equity, this is not the time to do it. You have almost no folding equity becasue he will have a set 80% of the time there and hes not folding.

I wouldve just called the flop raise, pushed the turn if I hit and most likely folded if I didnt (depending on how much he bet of course).
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Postby Bob314 » Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:29 pm

If you look straight at the pot odds here you have to call $16 to win 34.50 so you are getting 2.3-1 on a call. If you have a straight and flush draw I don't know what your odds are to hit with 1 card to come but I would guess that you aren't getting the right odds to even call the raise here (and if you are I'd bet the call is very thin). I would actually fold here. Call me tight but you are stuck between a preflop raiser and someone who wants to play with the preflop raiser it probably isn't the right time to go nuts on a draw (even if it is a good draw).
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Postby shamdonk » Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:02 pm

A fold here is waaaay too tight. You only fold here if you disconnect imho. Ice's advice is like always, on the money. I have played lower limits and a min raise can mean anything. But at these limits I'm sure ice is 100% right. Yet, even if you are 100% sure he has a set folding is still not an option your about a 3:2 dog with gigantic implied odds; if he's one to not fold a set on a 3 flush/straight board.
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Postby Bob314 » Sun Jul 31, 2005 3:30 pm

I agree that Iceman's opinion is more correct far more often than mine will be, however, you really have to look at the preflop raiser and view the situation from his point of view. Why? Because he is still to act behind you. You can't really look at just the odds you are being layed at the moment because they are subject to change before you even get to see another card. If your opponent is on an overpair this board is terrifyingly coordinated. A lot of middle pairs have hit a set on you or if you have 7-7 or 2 big clubs you have outs. So he leads out for 4/5 the pot and gets min-raised and then a cold caller (you). I don't think it is too much of a stretch to think that the UTG player will realize that you have a draw so now he has to consider the min-raiser. Will he respect the min raise or is he going to come over the top with a large bet himself? How aggressively does he play his overpairs? Have you seen him lose his stack to sets or two pair before? What would Iceman do if he UTG and was holding an overpair (a strong one, like queens or better just to make things simple) on this board and the action came down bet, min-raise, call? Probably muck or call planning to fold if he didn't turn a set (I'd say fold for sure if he wasn't getting about 6-1 on his call at that point). If you think the player is tight and will realize his overpair my very well not be good and he won't re-raise then a call is reasonable. If he is aggressive with this type of holding and there is a decent chance he is coming over the top you have to fold here. Of course, he might have just been betting with a wiffed A-K overcards, but an overpair is just as likely considering his position and the fact that a wiffed A-K (no clubs) probably doesn't have much of a chance to take down the hand on such a coordinated board.
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