by Bob314 » Sun Jul 31, 2005 3:30 pm
I agree that Iceman's opinion is more correct far more often than mine will be, however, you really have to look at the preflop raiser and view the situation from his point of view. Why? Because he is still to act behind you. You can't really look at just the odds you are being layed at the moment because they are subject to change before you even get to see another card. If your opponent is on an overpair this board is terrifyingly coordinated. A lot of middle pairs have hit a set on you or if you have 7-7 or 2 big clubs you have outs. So he leads out for 4/5 the pot and gets min-raised and then a cold caller (you). I don't think it is too much of a stretch to think that the UTG player will realize that you have a draw so now he has to consider the min-raiser. Will he respect the min raise or is he going to come over the top with a large bet himself? How aggressively does he play his overpairs? Have you seen him lose his stack to sets or two pair before? What would Iceman do if he UTG and was holding an overpair (a strong one, like queens or better just to make things simple) on this board and the action came down bet, min-raise, call? Probably muck or call planning to fold if he didn't turn a set (I'd say fold for sure if he wasn't getting about 6-1 on his call at that point). If you think the player is tight and will realize his overpair my very well not be good and he won't re-raise then a call is reasonable. If he is aggressive with this type of holding and there is a decent chance he is coming over the top you have to fold here. Of course, he might have just been betting with a wiffed A-K overcards, but an overpair is just as likely considering his position and the fact that a wiffed A-K (no clubs) probably doesn't have much of a chance to take down the hand on such a coordinated board.